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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | −3 pts | 0 pts | — · 1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 742d |  meowinglion | Kamala Silver Bulletin odds >55% Friday? | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,503 | +$5 +0.2% | 4 |
| 742d |  Shayku | Kamala Silver Bulletin odds >55% Friday? | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,192 | +$37 +3.1% | 5 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kamala Harris has a 55.1% or greater chance of winning the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election according to the Silver Bulletin election forecast on October 11, 2024. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's 2024 presidential election forecast, https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model, specifically the probability of winning the Electoral College. This market will resolve according to the datapoint for October 11 when the datapoint first become available. If no datapoint for October 11 is available by October 14, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the nearest previous figures to October 11.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 0%.