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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harris by 0.5-0.9 | 100% | +20 pts | 0 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Trump by 1.5+ | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Trump by 1.0-1.4 | 0% | −1 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Trump by 0.5-0.9 | 0% | −1 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Trump by 0-0.4 | 0% | −1 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Harris by 0.1-0.4 | 0% | −13 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Harris by 1+ | 0% | −24 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 805d |  CrunchWrapoDeLaFuente3 fills | Harris by 1+ | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $6,836 | +$655 +9.6% | 10 |
| 805d |  sigh | Harris by 1+ | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $1,962 | +$223 +11% | 10 |
| 806d |  Wallonie4Congress | Harris by 1+ | BuyNo88¢ → 100¢ | $1,175 | +$158 +13% | 13 |
| 807d | aviato | Trump by 1.5+ | BuyNo100¢ | $1,194 | +$6 +0.5% | 10 |
| 808d | Bidensupporter123 | Trump by 1.5+ | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,094 | +$47 +2.3% | 10 |
| 808d | J.V. | Trump by 1.5+ | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,174 | +$26 +2.2% | 10 |
| 810d | MerchantHedgehog | Trump by 1.5+ | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $7,099 | +$789 +11% | 11 |
| 811d | aaabbb | Harris by 0.1-0.4 | SellNo90¢ → 100¢ | $2,538 | −$282 −11% | — |
| 811d | aaabbb | Harris by 0.1-0.4 | BuyNo89¢ → 100¢ | $2,705 | +$340 +13% | 11 |
This is a market on the polling margin between Trump and Kamala on August 9, as tracked by RealClearPolitics.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for Harris by 0.5-0.9 means the market gives it about 100%.