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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 100% | +4 pts | 0 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 571d |  Mecky2 fills | Magnificent 7 shrinks below 30% of S&P 500 in 2025? | SellYes76¢ → 100¢ | $5,483 | −$1,688 −31% | — |
| 571d | AreWeNotEntertained | Magnificent 7 shrinks below 30% of S&P 500 in 2025? | BuyYes>99¢ | $15,333 | +$30 +0.2% | 4 |
| 571d | haohua | Magnificent 7 shrinks below 30% of S&P 500 in 2025? | BuyYes>99¢ | $8,855 | +$27 +0.3% | 4 |
| 571d | aviato2 fills | Magnificent 7 shrinks below 30% of S&P 500 in 2025? | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,379 | +$21 +0.4% | 4 |
| 571d |  aenews2 | Magnificent 7 shrinks below 30% of S&P 500 in 2025? | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $16,195 | +$186 +1.1% | 4 |
| 571d | YesForProfit | Magnificent 7 shrinks below 30% of S&P 500 in 2025? | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,003 | +$11 +1.1% | 4 |
| 571d | OneAHalfshadow | Magnificent 7 shrinks below 30% of S&P 500 in 2025? | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,048 | +$60 +5.8% | 4 |
| 575d | Velthorn | Magnificent 7 shrinks below 30% of S&P 500 in 2025? | SellNo21¢ → 0¢ | $14,554 | +$14,554 +100% | — |
| 575d | Verdellion | Magnificent 7 shrinks below 30% of S&P 500 in 2025? | BuyYes80¢ → 100¢ | $55,445 | +$13,861 +25% | 4 |
| 592d | Tyraleth | Magnificent 7 shrinks below 30% of S&P 500 in 2025? | SellYes78¢ → 100¢ | $64,066 | −$18,070 −28% | — |
| 592d | Tyraleth | Magnificent 7 shrinks below 30% of S&P 500 in 2025? | BuyYes81¢ → 100¢ | $66,530 | +$15,606 +23% | 4 |
| 599d | mmmbop | Magnificent 7 shrinks below 30% of S&P 500 in 2025? | BuyYes71¢ → 100¢ | $1,065 | +$435 +41% | 4 |
| 601d | Gl1tch | Magnificent 7 shrinks below 30% of S&P 500 in 2025? | SellYes53¢ → 100¢ | $1,347 | −$1,208 −90% | — |
| 603d | mmmbop | Magnificent 7 shrinks below 30% of S&P 500 in 2025? | SellNo37¢ → 0¢ | $1,152 | +$1,152 +100% | — |
| 612d | Misterxqt | Magnificent 7 shrinks below 30% of S&P 500 in 2025? | BuyYes39¢ → 100¢ | $1,076 | +$1,670 +155% | 4 |
| 612d | Misterxqt | Magnificent 7 shrinks below 30% of S&P 500 in 2025? | SellNo61¢ → 0¢ | $1,647 | +$1,647 +100% | — |
| 622d |  Car | Magnificent 7 shrinks below 30% of S&P 500 in 2025? | SellNo58¢ → 0¢ | $1,051 | +$1,051 +100% | — |
| 628d | Misterxqt | Magnificent 7 shrinks below 30% of S&P 500 in 2025? | BuyNo46¢ → 0¢ | $1,176 | −$1,176 −100% | 4 |
| 628d | Misterxqt | Magnificent 7 shrinks below 30% of S&P 500 in 2025? | SellYes59¢ → 100¢ | $1,001 | −$695 −69% | — |
| 628d | pokemon054 fills | Magnificent 7 shrinks below 30% of S&P 500 in 2025? | SellNo56¢ → 0¢ | $6,950 | +$6,950 +100% | — |
| 628d | pokemon05 | Magnificent 7 shrinks below 30% of S&P 500 in 2025? | BuyYes73¢ → 100¢ | $1,456 | +$544 +37% | 4 |
| 631d | HoffmanV1 | Magnificent 7 shrinks below 30% of S&P 500 in 2025? | BuyYes34¢ → 100¢ | $1,300 | +$2,477 +191% | 5 |
| 631d | pokemon054 fills | Magnificent 7 shrinks below 30% of S&P 500 in 2025? | BuyNo60¢ → 0¢ | $12,317 | −$12,317 −100% | 4 |
| 634d | Alanwatts2 fills | Magnificent 7 shrinks below 30% of S&P 500 in 2025? | SellYes34¢ → 100¢ | $2,799 | −$5,441 −194% | — |
| 634d |  Japan | Magnificent 7 shrinks below 30% of S&P 500 in 2025? | BuyYes35¢ → 100¢ | $1,601 | +$2,973 +186% | 5 |
| 635d | Car2 fills | Magnificent 7 shrinks below 30% of S&P 500 in 2025? | BuyNo60¢ → 0¢ | $3,197 | −$3,197 −100% | 4 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the combined cap weight of the Magnificent Seven stocks (Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Google (Alphabet Class A and C), Meta, Tesla, and Nvidia) in the S&P 500 index, calculated using the official S&P 500 index cap weighting formula, falls below 30% on any trading day (using market close prices) by the last day of trading in 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market will be daily closes prices applied to the cap weighting formula for the S&P 500.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 100%.