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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 845d | professorx | NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine before July? | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,419 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 850d | Gdub | NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine before July? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,500 | +$22 +1.5% | 20 |
| 851d | Kapii | NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine before July? | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,526 | −$52 −2.0% | — |
| 858d |  BigMike112 fills | NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine before July? | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $4,458 | −$159 −3.6% | — |
| 878d | AnonymousGambler | NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine before July? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,072 | +$23 +2.1% | 20 |
| 906d |  Reini18602 fills | NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine before July? | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $8,500 | +$580 +6.8% | 20 |
| 910d |  ANudeEgg2 fills | NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine before July? | SellNo94¢ → 100¢ | $4,772 | −$305 −6.4% | — |
| 915d | ANudeEgg2 fills | NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine before July? | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $4,896 | +$342 +7.0% | 20 |
| 915d | no-valuebetting2 | NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine before July? | SellYes7¢ → 0¢ | $1,384 | +$1,384 +100% | — |
| 924d | subird | NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine before July? | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $3,801 | +$331 +8.7% | 20 |
| 931d | BeN | NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine before July? | SellNo92¢ → 100¢ | $10,031 | −$872 −8.7% | — |
| 934d | BeN | NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine before July? | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $15,167 | +$1,319 +8.7% | 20 |
| 953d |  VibesGreaterRules | NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine before July? | SellNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,692 | −$127 −7.5% | — |
On February 26, 2024, Emmanuel Macron stated that sending troops to Ukraine has not been ruled out, reinforcing other recent statements by by the Slovakian prime minister to similar effect. (https://apnews.com/article/paris-conference-support-ukraine-zelenskyy-c458a1df3f9a7626128cdeb84050d469) This market will resolve to "Yes" if active military personnel officially affiliated with any NATO or EU country enter Ukraine for combat-related military purposes directly pertaining to the ongoing conflict with Russia between February 27, 2024, 12:00 PM ET and June 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For military personnel to qualify toward a "Yes" resolution, they must be 1) officially acknowledged as active military by the NATO or EU entity or member state they are affiliated with; 2) be publicly acknowledged by NATO or an EU-affiliated entity to have entered Ukraine for a combat-related military purpose directly pertaining to the ongoing conflict with Russia. For military personnel to qualify toward a "Yes" resolution they need be active duty and acknowledged as described above. Participation in a combat role is necessary for this market to resolve to "Yes" (e.g. military personnel providing training or intelligence support would not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution, however drone pilots or infantry directly attacking Russian troops, or soldiers targeting and downing missiles from Ukrainian soil would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO, the EU, or member states of either entity, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 0%.
