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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| On or prior to September 22 | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| September 23 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| September 24 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| September 25 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| September 26 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| September 27 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| September 28 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| September 29 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| September 30 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| October 1 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| October 2 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| October 3 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| October 4 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| October 5 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| October 6 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| October 7 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| October 8 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| October 9 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| October 10 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| October 11 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| October 12 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| October 13 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| October 14 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| October 15 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| No release by October 15 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31d | Peaceful-Fire-Bell | September 30 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,047 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 31d | Peaceful-Fire-Bell | October 13 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,032 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 32d | IAmSeuz | On or prior to September 22 | BuyNo37¢ → 0¢ | $1,000 | −$1,000 −100% | 28 |
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's next GPT Luna model (5.7+) is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "GPT" and "Luna" and be designated as version 5.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.7 or higher named in the same manner as GPT-5.6 Luna would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as GPT-6 Luna or an Astra-branded release meeting these criteria, while models whose name does not include "Luna" or which retain a version designation below 5.7, such as GPT-5.6 Luna, GPT-5.6 Sol, GPT-5.6 Terra, or GPT-6 Astra (released September 4, 2026), will not qualify. Fine-tunes, modes, or restricted-access variants of an existing version, such as GPT-5.6-Cyber or GPT-5.6 Sol Ultrafast, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for On or prior to September 22 means the market gives it about 100%.