Loading your workspacePreparing the page and its market data.
Loading the chart…
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 30 | 100% | +23 pts | +26 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| December 31 | 100% | +21 pts | +29 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 347d |  Allinnothing | December 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,097 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 347d | Allinnothing | November 30 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,736 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 347d |  beno1cH | November 30 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,888 | −$4 −0.2% | — |
| 347d | bigprotons | December 31 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,451 | −$6 −0.4% | — |
| 347d | OLOTH | November 30 | BuyYes>99¢ | $13,642 | +$14 +0.1% | 20 |
| 347d |  probability | December 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $6,527 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
| 347d |  hansaplast | November 30 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,470 | +$6 +0.4% | 20 |
| 347d |  stockgold | December 31 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,647 | +$14 +0.9% | 20 |
| 347d | beno1cH | November 30 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,854 | +$37 +2.0% | 20 |
| 347d |  Parieurfou | November 30 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,731 | +$42 +2.5% | 20 |
| 347d | StudentMoney | December 31 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,220 | +$26 +2.1% | 20 |
| 353d | 0x8eac…bca8 | December 31 | BuyYes77¢ → 100¢ | $2,978 | +$876 +29% | 20 |
| 359d | PandL | December 31 | SellYes60¢ → 100¢ | $1,586 | −$1,058 −67% | — |
| 361d | lucid1 | December 31 | BuyNo43¢ → 0¢ | $1,900 | −$1,900 −100% | 21 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolas Sarkozy is released from custody by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Sarkozy is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes". If Sarkozy is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes". Transporting Sarkozy to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for November 30 means the market gives it about 100%.