Loading your workspacePreparing the page and its market data.
Loading the chart…
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| László Krasznahorkai | 100% | +88 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Haruki Murakami | 0% | −5 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Mircea Cărtărescu | 0% | −17 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Can Xue | 0% | −7 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Gerald Murnane | 0% | −16 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Adonis | 0% | −8 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Thomas Pynchon | 0% | −7 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Anne Carson | 0% | −4 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Hélène Cixous | 0% | −4 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Ngũgĩ wa Thiong’o | 0% | −5 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Other | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Person A | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Person B | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Person C | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Person D | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Person E | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Person F | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Person G | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Person H | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Person I | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Person J | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Person K | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Person L | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Person M | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Person N | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Person O | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Person P | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Person Q | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Person R | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Person S | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Person T | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Person U | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Person V | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Person W | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Person X | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Person Y | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Person Z | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 380d | mechadeltron | László Krasznahorkai | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,076 | −$11 −1.0% | — |
| 380d |  AgricultureSecretary | Haruki Murakami | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,423 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 380d |  0x46E29dcb9cD03B9f39bf5Bf7759b07ea280EF | Hélène Cixous | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,507 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 380d |  humbleBaker | Anne Carson | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,507 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 380d | valmier | Anne Carson | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,958 | +$12 +0.6% | 20 |
| 380d | humbleBaker | Can Xue | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,428 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 380d |  Chims | Hélène Cixous | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,094 | +$6 +0.3% | 20 |
| 380d | AgricultureSecretary | László Krasznahorkai | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,108 | +$59 +5.3% | 20 |
| 382d |  TeemuPukki | Haruki Murakami | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,144 | +$64 +5.6% | 20 |
| 382d |  chopsticktrader | László Krasznahorkai | SellNo50¢ → 0¢ | $9,888 | +$9,888 +100% | — |
| 382d | chopsticktrader | László Krasznahorkai | BuyNo50¢ → 0¢ | $9,888 | −$9,888 −100% | 20 |
Cookedtan46 sharesThe 2025 Nobel Prize in Literature is scheduled to be awarded in October 2025, during the annual Nobel Prize announcements in Stockholm, Sweden. This market will resolve according to the listed individual, who is officially announced as the winner of the 2025 Nobel Prize in Literature by the Swedish Academy. If there are multiple winners, this market will resolve to the person whose last name, as listed here, comes first alphabetically. If the award has not been officially announced by April 30, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source will be the first official announcement from the Swedish Academy.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for László Krasznahorkai means the market gives it about 100%.