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Polymarket · WorldClosed
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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ↓ 40% | 100% | +22 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| ↑ 50% | 0% | −44 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| ↑ 60% | 0% | −3 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 322d |  NastParMusk | ↑ 60% | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,615 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 323d |  Ahpo | ↓ 40% | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,330 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 324d |  Optimus- | ↓ 40% | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,020 | +$10 +1.0% | 20 |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the “Yes” option for 'December 31' in the "US x Venezuela military engagement by...?" market (https://polymarket.com/event/us-x-venezuela-military-engagement-by?tid=1764682726361) is priced over the listed value for any four-hour period ending by December 5, 2025, 11:59 PM ET or earlier. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A tie in the number of minutes will resolve to "No". If the underlying market resolves prior to this market, this market will immediately resolve in accordance with the underlying market’s final outcome. The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for 'December 31' in the “US x Venezuela military engagement by...?” market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/index/odds-of-us-x-venezuela-military-engagement-in-2025-over-50-by-friday or through the “Resolution” tab with the time set to show the four-hour window. Both interfaces display the same underlying data. Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for ↓ 40% means the market gives it about 100%.