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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50-52 | 100% | +6 pts | 0 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <50 | 0% | −4 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 53-55 | 0% | −3 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 56+ | 0% | −1 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 637d | pantomime | 53-55 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,433 | +$2 +0.1% | 10 |
| 637d | VorpalQuark | 56+ | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,663 | +$2 +0.1% | 10 |
| 637d |  Euan | 56+ | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,006 | +$2 +0.2% | 10 |
| 637d |  syncope2 fills | <50 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,135 | +$77 +1.5% | 10 |
| 637d | syncope | 53-55 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,006 | +$3 +0.3% | 10 |
| 637d |  MotherTheresa3 fills | 56+ | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $8,023 | +$80 +1.0% | 10 |
| 640d |  DickTurbin | <50 | SellNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,514 | −$62 −4.1% | — |
| 640d |  KimJonEn | <50 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,461 | +$50 +3.4% | 10 |
| 647d | DickTurbin | <50 | BuyNo83¢ → 100¢ | $1,328 | +$272 +20% | 10 |
This is a market on the number of Senate votes required to confirm Hegseth as Secretary of Defense.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 50-52 means the market gives it about 100%.