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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 53–56M | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <44M | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 44–47M | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 47–50M | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 50–53M | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 56–59M | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 59M+ | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 215d | AZwater | 47–50M | SellNo>99¢ | $22,548 | −$23 −0.1% | — |
| 215d | AZwater | 44–47M | SellNo>99¢ | $5,429 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 215d | AZwater | <44M | SellNo>99¢ | $1,088 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 215d | gold-digger | 50–53M | SellNo>99¢ | $11,833 | −$12 −0.1% | — |
| 215d | gold-digger | 53–56M | SellYes>99¢ | $10,898 | −$11 −0.1% | — |
| 215d |  Kamikaze99 | 53–56M | BuyYes>99¢ | $6,312 | +$6 +0.1% | 4 |
| 215d |  airme | 53–56M | SellYes>99¢ | $1,569 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 215d | Kamikaze994 fills | 50–53M | BuyNo>99¢ | $35,379 | +$143 +0.4% | 4 |
| 215d | 0xe72b…3c9c | 53–56M | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,998 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 215d |  JewRizzler | 50–53M | BuyNo100¢ | $1,087 | +$5 +0.5% | 4 |
| 215d | 0xe72b…3c9c | 50–53M | BuyNo100¢ | $3,592 | +$18 +0.5% | 4 |
| 215d | AZwater5 fills | 56–59M | BuyNo>99¢ | $21,285 | +$59 +0.3% | 4 |
| 215d | AZwater2 fills | 53–56M | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,503 | +$27 +1.1% | 4 |
| 215d |  PicklePredictor | 53–56M | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $5,410 | +$55 +1.0% | 4 |
| 215d | PicklePredictor | 47–50M | SellNo>99¢ | $1,920 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 215d | AZwater | 50–53M | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,439 | +$29 +2.0% | 4 |
| 215d | Webbed-MinnowNew account | 53–56M | BuyYes88¢ → 100¢ | $1,160 | +$155 +13% | 4 |
| 215d | PicklePredictor | 56–59M | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,030 | +$14 +1.3% | 4 |
| 215d | influenz.eth2 fills | 56–59M | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,621 | +$38 +1.5% | 4 |
| 215d | gold-digger2 fills | 53–56M | BuyYes90¢ → 100¢ | $2,962 | +$336 +11% | 4 |
| 215d | influenz.eth2 fills | 50–53M | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $2,428 | +$232 +9.6% | 4 |
| 215d | influenz.eth2 fills | 59M+ | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,656 | +$3 +0.1% | 4 |
| 215d | Super-SpleenNew account | 59M+ | SellNo>99¢ | $1,077 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 215d | Feline-GeldingNew account | 59M+ | SellNo>99¢ | $1,277 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 215d | Finished-ChampionshipNew account | 59M+ | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,064 | +$2 +0.2% | 4 |
| 215d | gold-digger4 fills | 50–53M | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $6,514 | +$755 +12% | 4 |
| 215d | airme | 47–50M | SellNo>99¢ | $2,243 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 215d | Noisy-Rating | 53–56M | SellYes84¢ → 100¢ | $1,109 | −$218 −20% | — |
| 215d | AZwater | 47–50M | BuyNo>99¢ | $17,825 | +$18 +0.1% | 4 |
| 215d | Kamikaze99 | 47–50M | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,223 | +$10 +0.2% | 4 |
| 215d | airme | 47–50M | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,200 | +$45 +2.0% | 4 |
| 215d | Outrageous-Retreat | 59M+ | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,834 | +$57 +3.1% | 4 |
| 215d | MerchantOfDefi | 59M+ | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $12,417 | +$384 +3.1% | 4 |
| 215d | MoD | 59M+ | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $5,314 | +$164 +3.1% | 4 |
| 215d | Kamikaze99 | 44–47M | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,584 | +$5 +0.1% | 4 |
| 215d | LeyJamesO | 44–47M | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,291 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 215d | PicklePredictor | 47–50M | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,742 | +$45 +2.6% | 5 |
| 216d | deepmouse | <44M | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,200 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
This market will resolve according to the number of views the latest YouTube video posted by MrBeast gets in the first 48 hours after being posted. This market may not resolve until the 48 hours are complete, regardless of whether a strike is reached earlier. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market is MrBeast's YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast), specifically the 'views' counter for the described video. Note: This market refers to the video titled "Trapped On An Island Until I Build A Boat", which can be found here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JFtlf8RoPZY. Shorts, previews, or other videos released other than the referenced video will not be considered.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 53–56M means the market gives it about 100%.