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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $100M | 8% | — | −1 pts | 7¢ · 9¢ (2¢) | — | in 69d |
| $300M | 8% | −1 pts | −1 pts | 7¢ · 9¢ (2¢) | — | in 69d |
| $500M | 8% | −1 pts | −1 pts | 8¢ · 9¢ (1¢) | $673 | in 69d |
| $3B | 5% | +1 pts | +1 pts | 4¢ · 6¢ (2¢) | $527 | in 69d |
| $2B | 4% | +1 pts | +1 pts | 3¢ · 6¢ (2¢) | $152 | in 69d |
| $1B | 8% | — | — | 7¢ · 8¢ (1¢) | $121 | in 69d |
| $5B | 3% | −1 pts | −1 pts | 2¢ · 4¢ (1¢) | $61 | in 69d |
| $100M | 9% | 0 pts | +1 pts | 8¢ · 9¢ (1¢) | $12 | in 69d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | 83offwrf | $1B | BuyNo93¢ | $2,157 | −$12 −0.5% | 3 |
| 4d |  opus228 | $3B | BuyNo96¢ → 95¢ | $1,674 | −$22 −1.3% | 3 |
| 4d |  ke1pie | $1B | BuyNo93¢ | $1,452 | −$8 −0.5% | 3 |
| 7d | bozotys2 fills | $100M | BuyNo90¢ → 91¢ | $5,409 | +$75 +1.4% | 4 |
| 8d | Mingooo2 fills | $1B | SellNo83¢ → 93¢ | $3,830 | −$460 −12% | — |
| 9d | bozotys | $100M | BuyNo86¢ → 92¢ | $1,112 | +$78 +7.0% | 2 |
| 12d |  gatonekki2 fills | $1B | SellNo89¢ → 93¢ | $6,661 | −$277 −4.2% | — |
| 12d | Liquidifier | $2B | SellNo96¢ | $1,213 | +$8 +0.7% | — |
| 18d |  dadadadayazi | $100M | SellNo87¢ → 92¢ | $1,013 | −$57 −5.7% | — |
| 24d | mefirofan | $100M | BuyNo79¢ → 92¢ | $1,656 | +$273 +16% | 2 |
| 29d | anlp | $1B | SellNo85¢ → 93¢ | $1,564 | −$133 −8.5% | — |
| 33d |  DavidTrezeguet | $3B | BuyNo94¢ → 95¢ | $1,285 | +$8 +0.6% | 3 |
| 34d | BaaDsHa | $1B | SellNo85¢ → 93¢ | $1,065 | −$94 −8.8% | — |
| 35d | mefirofan | $500M | BuyNo82¢ → 92¢ | $1,473 | +$172 +12% | 5 |
| 36d |  elmcap2 | $2B | SellNo94¢ → 96¢ | $4,205 | −$69 −1.6% | — |
| 37d | MaxEnt2 fills | $100M | BuyNo81¢ → 91¢ | $2,309 | +$278 +12% | 5 |
| 50d | elmcap2 | $3B | BuyNo94¢ → 95¢ | $2,865 | +$33 +1.1% | 3 |
| 50d | elmcap2 | $5B | BuyNo95¢ → 97¢ | $1,505 | +$36 +2.4% | 3 |
| 51d | yulinjin | $3B | SellNo92¢ → 95¢ | $1,399 | −$40 −2.9% | — |
| 56d | yulinjin | $3B | BuyNo94¢ → 95¢ | $2,446 | +$24 +1.0% | 3 |
| 59d |  olegs | $3B | SellNo94¢ → 95¢ | $1,258 | −$10 −0.8% | — |
| 59d | olegs | $5B | SellNo96¢ → 97¢ | $1,011 | −$6 −0.6% | — |
| 64d | 0x5bc4D9adDd8597eb34e255d97c194f4D78Bf44f | $500M | SellNo84¢ → 92¢ | $1,717 | −$160 −9.3% | — |
| 67d | y6tfd | $2B | SellNo93¢ → 96¢ | $1,212 | −$27 −2.3% | — |
| 72d |  alanhutton | $2B | SellNo95¢ → 96¢ | $1,012 | −$6 −0.6% | — |
| 74d | Attradies | $500M | SellNo89¢ → 92¢ | $1,464 | −$46 −3.1% | — |
| 81d | olegs | $1B | BuyNo89¢ → 93¢ | $4,645 | +$183 +3.9% | 4 |
| 81d | 0x241F...e15a | $100M | BuyNo88¢ → 91¢ | $1,378 | +$49 +3.6% | 4 |
| 82d | olegs2 fills | $3B | BuyNo94¢ → 95¢ | $5,160 | +$27 +0.5% | 3 |
| 83d | MaxEnt2 fills | $500M | BuyNo84¢ → 92¢ | $2,899 | +$283 +9.8% | 5 |
| 83d | 0x241F...e15a | $100M | BuyNo86¢ → 92¢ | $1,059 | +$80 +7.6% | 2 |
| 87d | olegs | $5B | BuyNo96¢ → 97¢ | $1,321 | +$10 +0.8% | 3 |
| 92d | alanhutton3 fills | $1B | BuyNo83¢ → 93¢ | $4,649 | +$531 +11% | 5 |
| 92d | alanhutton | $2B | BuyNo93¢ → 96¢ | $1,953 | +$54 +2.7% | 3 |
| 95d | dadadadayazi | $100M | BuyNo80¢ → 92¢ | $1,058 | +$158 +15% | 2 |
| 97d | cryptoincome2 fills | $1B | BuyNo87¢ → 93¢ | $3,808 | +$260 +6.8% | 4 |
| 98d |  Hyperlong4 fills | $500M | SellNo59¢ → 92¢ | $11,831 | −$6,712 −57% | — |
| 98d | Cryptogodrocker | $500M | SellYes22¢ → 8¢ | $3,794 | +$2,406 +63% | — |
| 100d | BetterHold | $5B | SellNo94¢ → 97¢ | $3,786 | −$111 −2.9% | — |
| 101d | zhupercycle | $500M | SellNo75¢ → 92¢ | $1,906 | −$435 −23% | — |
| 104d | soganyok | $2B | SellNo91¢ → 96¢ | $1,195 | −$60 −5.0% | — |
| 104d | soganyok | $3B | SellNo94¢ → 95¢ | $2,807 | −$42 −1.5% | — |
| 106d | hsefhsjdkfs | $1B | BuyNo85¢ → 93¢ | $1,383 | +$122 +8.8% | 5 |
| 108d | kalutkatop3 fills | $100M | SellYes42¢ → 8¢ | $5,525 | +$4,477 +81% | — |
| 108d |  xart | $500M | BuyNo79¢ → 92¢ | $1,881 | +$318 +17% | 6 |
| 108d | Attradies | $500M | BuyNo77¢ → 92¢ | $2,064 | +$399 +19% | 6 |
| 108d | dadadadayazi | $100M | SellYes27¢ → 8¢ | $1,354 | +$951 +70% | — |
| 108d | zzaqq2 | $3B | BuyNo94¢ → 95¢ | $1,433 | +$8 +0.6% | 3 |
| 108d | dadadadayazi | $100M | BuyYes35¢ → 8¢ | $1,747 | −$1,353 −77% | 4 |
| 110d | cryptoincome | $100M | BuyYes33¢ → 9¢ | $1,625 | −$1,190 −73% | 9 |
| 110d | cryptoincome | $500M | BuyNo73¢ → 92¢ | $1,417 | +$368 +26% | 7 |
| 112d |  Samwisealways | $1B | BuyNo87¢ → 93¢ | $1,028 | +$70 +6.8% | 4 |
| 113d | olegs | $500M | BuyNo69¢ → 92¢ | $2,673 | +$888 +33% | 7 |
| 116d | Hyperlong4 fills | $1B | SellNo81¢ → 93¢ | $5,605 | −$827 −15% | — |
| 118d | dotheoppositeofme | $500M | SellNo58¢ → 92¢ | $1,009 | −$578 −57% | — |
| 120d | Hyperlong5 fills | $3B | SellNo93¢ → 95¢ | $14,682 | −$311 −2.1% | — |
| 120d | firefox2 | $1B | SellNo78¢ → 93¢ | $1,314 | −$241 −18% | — |
| 125d |  Dreamwalker | $500M | BuyNo56¢ → 92¢ | $1,011 | +$648 +64% | 7 |
| 125d | 0x16351b85A6160e7A3759Ec20603e7C14e424562 | $300M | SellNo56¢ → 92¢ | $1,044 | −$679 −65% | — |
| 127d | 0x16351b85A6160e7A3759Ec20603e7C14e424562 | $500M | BuyNo59¢ → 92¢ | $3,666 | +$2,084 +57% | 7 |
shtanga0x-x1,328 sharesolegs7,224 shares
XieGuangKun1,022 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Opensea's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Opensea doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 8¢ for $100M means the market gives it about 8%.