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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No launch before July | 100% | 0 pts | +1 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <$1b | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| $1-3b | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| $3-5b | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| $5-10b | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| $15b or more | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| $10-15b | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 479d | AreWeNotEntertained | No launch before July | BuyYes>99¢ | $6,610 | +$7 +0.1% | 2 |
| 481d |  SappySeal673 fills | No launch before July | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $7,774 | +$238 +3.1% | 2 |
| 483d | cigarettes | $5-10b | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,936 | +$4 +0.1% | 2 |
| 483d | cigarettes | $15b or more | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,936 | +$4 +0.1% | 2 |
| 483d | cigarettes | $1-3b | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,928 | +$12 +0.3% | 2 |
| 483d | cigarettes | $3-5b | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,928 | +$12 +0.3% | 2 |
| 483d | Impish-Colonialism | No launch before July | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $4,779 | +$34 +0.7% | 2 |
| 488d |  XAE12Archangel | <$1b | SellNo>99¢ | $1,575 | −$6 −0.4% | — |
| 493d |  Cookedtan | $10-15b | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,688 | +$3 +0.1% | 2 |
| 493d | Cookedtan | $3-5b | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,952 | +$7 +0.4% | 2 |
| 493d | Cookedtan | $5-10b | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,680 | +$11 +0.4% | 2 |
| 493d | Cookedtan | $1-3b | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,683 | +$8 +0.3% | 2 |
| 493d | Cookedtan | $15b or more | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,683 | +$8 +0.3% | 2 |
| 493d | Cookedtan | <$1b | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,683 | +$8 +0.3% | 2 |
| 494d |  Anjun | $15b or more | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,135 | +$21 +0.4% | 2 |
| 507d | XAE12Archangel | No launch before July | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,234 | +$52 +4.2% | 2 |
| 507d | XAE12Archangel | <$1b | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,569 | +$32 +2.0% | 2 |
| 535d | wyland | $15b or more | SellNo100¢ | $2,129 | −$11 −0.5% | — |
| 535d | wyland | $15b or more | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,131 | +$9 +0.4% | 2 |
| 537d |  mrmrmrmr | <$1b | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $2,186 | +$243 +11% | 2 |
| 539d |  Cajetan | $5-10b | BuyNo100¢ | $1,990 | +$10 +0.5% | 2 |
| 539d | Cajetan | $15b or more | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,994 | +$6 +0.3% | 2 |
| 539d | Cajetan | <$1b | BuyNo89¢ → 100¢ | $1,780 | +$220 +12% | 2 |
| 539d | Cajetan | $10-15b | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,990 | +$10 +0.5% | 2 |
| 539d | Cajetan | $3-5b | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,880 | +$120 +6.4% | 2 |
| 539d | Cajetan | $1-3b | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,895 | +$105 +5.5% | 2 |
| 539d | bozotys2 fills | No launch before July | BuyYes65¢ → 100¢ | $3,369 | +$1,824 +54% | 2 |
| 540d | owain | $15b or more | SellNo>99¢ | $1,316 | −$4 −0.3% | — |
| 540d | owain | $15b or more | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,317 | +$3 +0.2% | 2 |
| 617d | blaze117 | <$1b | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $2,900 | +$219 +7.6% | 2 |
| 622d | Ninabi | <$1b | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $4,246 | +$320 +7.5% | 2 |
| 644d | RobXK | $1-3b | SellNo70¢ → 100¢ | $1,529 | −$655 −43% | — |
| 659d | DidntHearNoBell | $1-3b | SellYes30¢ → 0¢ | $5,748 | +$5,748 +100% | — |
| 660d |  Peter 'pet3rpan'2 fills | $1-3b | BuyNo68¢ → 100¢ | $2,700 | +$1,262 +47% | 2 |
| 661d | PolePlant | $1-3b | SellNo70¢ → 100¢ | $4,586 | −$1,965 −43% | — |
| 663d | DidntHearNoBell | $1-3b | BuyYes25¢ → 0¢ | $6,862 | −$6,862 −100% | 11 |
TimeTraveler3,114 shares
bozocm5 sharesThis is a market on the fully diluted valuation of OpenSea's token one day post-launch.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for No launch before July means the market gives it about 100%.