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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $250M | 100% | −1 pts | +7 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | in 69d |
| $500M | 0% | −1 pts | +7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 69d |
| $1B | 0% | +1 pts | +2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 69d |
| $2B | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 69d |
| $3B | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 69d |
| $4B | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 69d |
| $5B | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 69d |
| $800M | 0% | −3 pts | +3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 69d |
| $1.5B | 0% | −1 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 69d |
| $600M | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 69d |
| $400M | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 69d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 231d |  gnkg | $500M | SellNo>99¢ | $2,498 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 231d | gnkg | $400M | SellNo>99¢ | $4,086 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 231d |  IwillWin | $1B | SellNo>99¢ | $1,632 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 231d | xsjptlp32p | $500M | SellNo>99¢ | $1,110 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 231d |  one8tyfive | $250M | BuyYes>99¢ | $10,136 | +$10 +0.1% | 2 |
| 231d | chirsc | $500M | SellNo>99¢ | $4,070 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 231d | shibagege | $2B | SellNo>99¢ | $5,010 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 231d |  madril | $400M | SellNo>99¢ | $4,689 | −$9 −0.2% | — |
| 231d | madril2 fills | $500M | SellNo63¢ → 100¢ | $43,296 | −$25,016 −58% | — |
| 231d | wierzbik | $500M | SellNo>99¢ | $5,796 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 231d | Yoben-boben | $500M | SellNo>99¢ | $3,180 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 231d | lampochkalexa777 | $400M | SellNo>99¢ | $2,695 | −$5 −0.2% | — |
| 231d | niuniuhgir | $500M | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,199 | +$1 +0.1% | 2 |
| 231d | sleepin | $400M | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,433 | +$2 +0.1% | 2 |
| 231d | 34e857 | $250M | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,000 | +$2 +0.1% | 2 |
| 231d | 90a756 | $250M | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,000 | +$2 +0.1% | 2 |
| 231d | kukasistaken | $250M | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,888 | +$10 +0.2% | 2 |
| 231d | one8tyfive | $500M | BuyNo>99¢ | $37,323 | +$37 +0.1% | 2 |
| 231d | sleepin | $500M | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,189 | +$4 +0.2% | 2 |
| 231d | miyugyiftu66 | $500M | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,196 | +$4 +0.3% | 2 |
| 231d | WAIT4 | $500M | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,809 | +$8 +0.3% | 2 |
| 231d | venezuelain | $250M | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,048 | +$9 +0.3% | 2 |
| 231d |  Infringe | $400M | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,276 | +$5 +0.4% | 2 |
| 231d | Infringe | $800M | SellNo>99¢ | $1,276 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 231d |  elon2000 | $250M | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,295 | +$6 +0.4% | 2 |
| 231d | elon2000 | $600M | SellNo>99¢ | $1,567 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 231d |  swimmingtoriches | $400M | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,388 | +$7 +0.5% | 2 |
| 231d | swimmingtoriches | $600M | SellNo>99¢ | $1,418 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 231d | venezuelain | $600M | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,337 | +$2 +0.1% | 2 |
| 231d | JasonOu2024 | $250M | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,506 | −$20 −0.8% | — |
| 231d | szza | $250M | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,125 | −$9 −0.8% | — |
| 231d | Cactus-001 | $1B | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,108 | +$12 +0.2% | 2 |
| 231d | tianjiyuyunzhilu | $500M | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,183 | +$17 +0.4% | 2 |
| 231d | mlinw | $500M | SellNo>99¢ | $1,058 | −$5 −0.5% | — |
| 231d | fghsrthrhrshrsth | $250M | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $7,946 | −$54 −0.7% | — |
| 231d | bean125 | $600M | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,353 | +$1 +0.1% | 2 |
| 231d | bean125 | $1B | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,195 | +$1 +0.1% | 2 |
| 231d | 1881aa2 fills | $500M | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,466 | +$20 +0.6% | 2 |
| 231d |  AcctToBeRetired | $1B | SellNo>99¢ | $2,213 | −$4 −0.2% | — |
| 231d | Gelassen1 | $500M | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,424 | −$14 −1.0% | — |
| 231d | JasonOu2024 | $400M | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,051 | +$30 +1.4% | 2 |
| 231d | niklassssss | $1B | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,000 | +$1 +0.1% | 2 |
| 231d |  Zaratustra | $250M | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,548 | +$14 +0.9% | 2 |
| 231d | Vitaaalya2 fills | $250M | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $3,564 | +$99 +2.8% | 2 |
| 231d | TelMorie | $1.5B | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,710 | +$2 +0.1% | 2 |
| 231d |  Stairs. | $500M | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,235 | +$5 +0.4% | 2 |
| 231d | MaDuR0 | $250M | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,049 | −$26 −2.5% | — |
| 231d | youdoknowme | $500M | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,962 | −$15 −0.8% | — |
| 231d |  E61hi | $1B | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,638 | +$3 +0.1% | 2 |
| 231d |  ElerKsan2 fills | $500M | SellNo74¢ → 100¢ | $6,065 | −$2,079 −34% | — |
| 231d | gotozer0 | $400M | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $6,468 | −$193 −3.0% | — |
| 231d |  hack-vc | $500M | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,894 | +$18 +0.3% | 2 |
| 231d | mamulikk | $1B | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,877 | +$8 +0.2% | 2 |
| 231d | mamulikk | $1.5B | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,729 | +$2 +0.1% | 2 |
| 231d |  PrincessGlinda | $400M | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,071 | −$31 −2.9% | — |
| 231d | 1881aa5 fills | $250M | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $6,524 | +$249 +3.8% | 2 |
| 231d | kkdsj5 fills | $800M | BuyNo>99¢ | $24,180 | +$24 +0.1% | 2 |
| 231d | JasonOu2024 | $250M | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $2,485 | +$89 +3.6% | 2 |
| 231d | 0xfc8d…55c5 | $600M | SellNo>99¢ | $3,603 | −$9 −0.2% | — |
| 231d |  099play | $600M | SellNo>99¢ | $3,678 | −$7 −0.2% | — |
Fartard3,333 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Opinion's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Opinion (https://x.com/opinionlabsxyz) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for $250M means the market gives it about 100%.