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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $250M | 24% | — | −18 pts | 22¢ · 26¢ (4¢) | — | in 435d |
| $200M | 31% | +1 pts | −22 pts | 24¢ · 37¢ (13¢) | — | in 435d |
| $400M | 18% | +1 pts | −5 pts | 16¢ · 19¢ (3¢) | — | in 435d |
| $150M | 31% | −1 pts | −33 pts | 27¢ · 34¢ (7¢) | $955 | in 435d |
| $50M | 54% | +2 pts | −39 pts | 49¢ · 58¢ (9¢) | $379 | in 435d |
| $25M | 52% | +2 pts | −43 pts | 48¢ · 56¢ (8¢) | $244 | in 435d |
| $100M | 37% | — | −42 pts | 35¢ · 39¢ (4¢) | $25 | in 435d |
| $75M | 41% | +4 pts | −50 pts | 35¢ · 46¢ (11¢) | $5 | in 435d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d |  AllByMyseIf2 fills | $75M | BuyNo58¢ → 60¢ | $3,960 | +$96 +2.4% | 7 |
| 2d | odsowner | $25M | BuyNo50¢ → 48¢ | $1,543 | −$56 −3.6% | 7 |
| 2d | odsowner | $200M | BuyNo73¢ → 70¢ | $1,433 | −$68 −4.8% | 2 |
| 2d | odsowner | $150M | BuyNo65¢ → 70¢ | $1,262 | +$89 +7.1% | 7 |
| 2d | odsowner | $100M | BuyNo66¢ → 63¢ | $3,154 | −$143 −4.5% | 7 |
| 3d | AllByMyseIf2 fills | $200M | BuyNo68¢ → 70¢ | $4,012 | +$78 +1.9% | 2 |
| 3d | AllByMyseIf | $50M | BuyNo50¢ → 47¢ | $4,024 | −$281 −7.0% | 7 |
| 3d | AllByMyseIf | $150M | BuyNo65¢ → 70¢ | $1,039 | +$74 +7.1% | 7 |
| 3d | AllByMyseIf | $250M | BuyNo72¢ → 76¢ | $6,020 | +$343 +5.7% | 2 |
| 3d | pagliacci42 fills | $25M | SellYes41¢ → 52¢ | $2,648 | −$693 −26% | — |
| 3d |  gghtx | $250M | BuyNo70¢ → 76¢ | $1,960 | +$168 +8.6% | 2 |
| 3d | TheBigH | $200M | BuyNo65¢ → 70¢ | $1,878 | +$116 +6.2% | 2 |
| 3d | TheBigH | $150M | BuyNo50¢ → 70¢ | $2,000 | +$774 +39% | 7 |
| 3d | 952712312312 | $100M | BuyNo35¢ → 63¢ | $1,294 | +$1,035 +80% | 8 |
| 3d |  TwoEyes | $50M | BuyNo13¢ → 47¢ | $1,320 | +$3,287 +249% | 9 |
| 4d | pagliacci44 fills | $25M | BuyYes96¢ → 52¢ | $9,990 | −$4,590 −46% | 3 |
| 5d | 9abBa | $150M | BuyNo45¢ → 70¢ | $1,912 | +$1,073 +56% | 8 |
| 5d | 9abBa | $100M | BuyNo33¢ → 63¢ | $2,000 | +$1,789 +89% | 9 |
| 7d | notssf3 | $250M | BuyYes50¢ → 24¢ | $2,094 | −$1,089 −52% | 2 |
| 7d | notssf32 fills | $75M | BuyYes82¢ → 41¢ | $4,538 | −$2,304 −51% | 5 |
| 7d | notssf3 | $50M | BuyYes91¢ → 54¢ | $4,100 | −$1,690 −41% | 3 |
| 7d | notssf3 | $25M | BuyYes94¢ → 52¢ | $1,082 | −$483 −45% | 3 |
| 7d |  ASteroide | $50M | BuyYes91¢ → 54¢ | $5,000 | −$2,060 −41% | 3 |
| 7d | Baller01 | $100M | SellNo24¢ → 63¢ | $1,147 | −$1,837 −160% | — |
| 7d | ebobc | $250M | BuyYes50¢ → 24¢ | $2,000 | −$1,045 −52% | 2 |
| 7d | ddxbb | $25M | BuyYes93¢ → 52¢ | $1,000 | −$442 −44% | 3 |
| 7d | Exitliquid2069 | $25M | BuyYes91¢ → 52¢ | $2,139 | −$917 −43% | 3 |
| 7d | notssf3 | $100M | BuyYes68¢ → 37¢ | $1,208 | −$551 −46% | 7 |
| 7d | vbgnghfjmhgk | $100M | BuyYes68¢ → 37¢ | $1,900 | −$866 −46% | 7 |
| 7d |  alanhutton | $50M | SellYes85¢ → 54¢ | $1,955 | +$725 +37% | — |
| 9d | Baller01 | $50M | SellNo25¢ → 47¢ | $1,050 | −$903 −86% | — |
| 9d | alanhutton2 fills | $50M | BuyYes74¢ → 54¢ | $2,590 | −$717 −28% | 6 |
| 11d | mefirofan | $100M | BuyYes44¢ → 37¢ | $1,700 | −$271 −16% | 8 |
| 12d | sichuanhotpot | $100M | BuyYes55¢ → 37¢ | $2,211 | −$723 −33% | 7 |
| 12d | sichuanhotpot | $50M | BuyYes74¢ → 54¢ | $4,085 | −$1,131 −28% | 6 |
| 12d | sichuanhotpot | $25M | BuyYes84¢ → 52¢ | $7,725 | −$2,963 −38% | 5 |
| 12d | Baller01 | $100M | BuyNo53¢ → 63¢ | $1,000 | +$191 +19% | 7 |
| 13d | polkagarika | $100M | BuyYes50¢ → 37¢ | $1,000 | −$260 −26% | 7 |
gatonekki10,000 sharesAllByMyseIf8,372 sharesgghtx2,800 sharesTwoEyes806 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Papertrade's token is greater than the specified value 1 day after launch. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only an official token launched by Papertrade after the creation of this market will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count. The token must be actively and publicly tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Papertrade (https://x.com/papertrade_xyz) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 24¢ for $250M means the market gives it about 24%.