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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $30M | 100% | +46 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | in 69d |
| $200M | 0% | 0 pts | −16 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 69d |
| $400M | 0% | 0 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 69d |
| $600M | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 69d |
| $800M | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 69d |
| $1B | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 69d |
| $100M | 0% | −3 pts | −45 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 69d |
| $70M | 0% | −7 pts | −80 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 69d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 258d | 564yh | $70M | SellNo>99¢ | $2,306 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 258d | C03B | $30M | BuyYes>99¢ | $15,173 | +$19 +0.1% | 2 |
| 258d | Hpp3 | $70M | SellNo>99¢ | $1,998 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 258d |  leleko2k | $70M | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,496 | +$1 +0.1% | 2 |
| 258d | 1881aa | $70M | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,569 | +$3 +0.1% | 2 |
| 258d | rovad | $70M | SellNo>99¢ | $2,111 | −$4 −0.2% | — |
| 258d | retardinho | $100M | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,933 | +$6 +0.1% | 2 |
| 258d |  Isekai | $100M | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,416 | +$1 +0.1% | 2 |
| 259d | Hpp3 | $70M | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,408 | +$9 +0.2% | 2 |
| 259d | 123123123x | $100M | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,245 | +$2 +0.2% | 2 |
| 259d | 123123123x | $100M | SellNo>99¢ | $1,096 | −$4 −0.4% | — |
| 259d | umtc4m | $200M | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,248 | +$1 +0.1% | 2 |
| 259d | deepmouse | $200M | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,500 | +$6 +0.1% | 2 |
| 259d | Darling-BaseNew account | $70M | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,000 | +$6 +0.3% | 2 |
| 259d |  Quandal | $200M | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,000 | +$2 +0.1% | 2 |
| 259d | roflingbets | $200M | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,396 | +$4 +0.1% | 2 |
| 259d | KURAKAO | $400M | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,498 | +$4 +0.1% | 2 |
| 259d | onleveragekarlik | $400M | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,632 | +$2 +0.1% | 2 |
| 259d | roflingbets | $400M | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,497 | +$4 +0.1% | 2 |
| 259d | guashou | $30M | SellNo31¢ → 0¢ | $1,240 | +$1,240 +100% | — |
| 259d | yes123321qw | $100M | SellNo100¢ | $1,162 | −$6 −0.5% | — |
| 259d | irmants | $200M | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,998 | +$2 +0.1% | 2 |
| 259d | KamalaKaren | $400M | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,196 | +$4 +0.1% | 2 |
| 259d | Hpp32 fills | $200M | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,624 | +$20 +0.3% | 2 |
| 259d | Polygonooooor | $400M | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,995 | +$5 +0.1% | 2 |
| 259d | ishakeyourbets | $200M | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,139 | +$9 +0.3% | 2 |
| 259d | roflingbets | $100M | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,034 | +$7 +0.7% | 2 |
| 259d | PELTEKA | $400M | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,995 | +$5 +0.1% | 2 |
| 259d |  sid4434 | $400M | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,199 | +$1 +0.1% | 2 |
| 259d |  0xLoneStar2 fills | $70M | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $3,946 | +$208 +5.3% | 2 |
| 259d |  chenqiang | $200M | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,634 | −$10 −0.6% | — |
| 259d | wakakakakakaka | $70M | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,000 | +$68 +6.8% | 2 |
| 259d |  turbodi7el | $70M | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,012 | +$88 +8.7% | 2 |
| 259d | 564yh | $70M | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $1,182 | +$131 +11% | 2 |
| 260d |  SchrodingerBet | $600M | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,990 | +$10 +0.1% | 2 |
| 260d | mohandubey | $200M | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,233 | +$7 +0.6% | 2 |
| 260d | Hpp33 fills | $400M | BuyNo>99¢ | $15,950 | +$56 +0.4% | 2 |
| 260d | mrvitalikbuterin | $200M | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $7,685 | +$45 +0.6% | 2 |
| 260d |  Kepochnik | $200M | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,279 | +$26 +2.0% | 2 |
| 260d | Hpp3 | $600M | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,394 | +$5 +0.2% | 2 |
| 260d | Adelius | $400M | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,461 | +$6 +0.4% | 2 |
| 260d | Yawning-Assault | $600M | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,244 | +$2 +0.2% | 2 |
| 260d | Dines | $400M | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,631 | +$12 +0.7% | 2 |
| 260d | kslt | $70M | BuyNo40¢ → 100¢ | $1,000 | +$1,500 +150% | 2 |
| 260d | tryingmyluckhere2 fills | $70M | BuyNo39¢ → 100¢ | $3,986 | +$6,157 +154% | 5 |
| 260d | rumenspecov | $600M | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,882 | +$6 +0.3% | 2 |
| 260d |  mewmew1 | $800M | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,252 | +$5 +0.1% | 2 |
| 260d | jimmyjpeg | $100M | BuyNo72¢ → 100¢ | $3,000 | +$1,181 +39% | 2 |
| 261d | cnerwuiva | $1B | SellNo>99¢ | $1,098 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 261d | cnerwuiva2 fills | $400M | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,635 | +$29 +1.1% | 2 |
| 261d | CryptoRandi | $400M | BuyNo100¢ | $1,126 | +$6 +0.5% | 2 |
| 261d | chenqiang | $200M | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,870 | +$98 +5.3% | 2 |
| 261d | facaishu | $1B | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,225 | +$8 +0.1% | 2 |
| 262d | JasonOu2024 | $200M | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $1,267 | +$135 +11% | 2 |
| 262d | kevin-airdrop | $400M | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,839 | +$23 +1.2% | 2 |
| 263d |  yomayoto | $1B | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,445 | +$4 +0.3% | 2 |
| 263d | TommyKFCV50 | $400M | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,239 | −$31 −2.5% | — |
| 263d | yomayoto | $800M | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,922 | +$16 +0.4% | 2 |
| 264d | cnerwuiva3 fills | $1B | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,555 | +$19 +0.4% | 2 |
| 264d | NikeJEsus3 fills | $400M | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $7,065 | +$172 +2.4% | 2 |
1rezak500 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Rainbow's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Rainbow doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for $30M means the market gives it about 100%.