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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $70M | 22% | −2 pts | −1 pts | 21¢ · 22¢ (1¢) | — | in 69d |
| $40M | 20% | — | −4 pts | 19¢ · 20¢ (1¢) | — | in 69d |
| $10M | 19% | — | −3 pts | 18¢ · 20¢ (2¢) | — | in 69d |
| $150M | 16% | −1 pts | −2 pts | 15¢ · 16¢ (1¢) | $1.3K | in 69d |
| $200M | 9% | — | −1 pts | 8¢ · 10¢ (2¢) | — | in 69d |
| $300M | 7% | 0 pts | −2 pts | 7¢ · 8¢ (1¢) | $120 | in 69d |
| $400M | 7% | — | 0 pts | 7¢ · 8¢ (1¢) | — | in 69d |
| $1B | 1% | — | 0 pts | 1¢ · 1¢ (<1¢) | — | in 69d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 73d | YYY55 | $400M | SellNo94¢ → 93¢ | $1,139 | +$14 +1.2% | — |
| 120d | bonnbrt | $1B | BuyNo>99¢ → 99¢ | $2,981 | −$16 −0.6% | 2 |
| 120d | ginnger2 fills | $1B | BuyNo>99¢ → 99¢ | $4,543 | −$23 −0.5% | 2 |
| 120d |  my0nn1t | $1B | SellNo>99¢ → 99¢ | $4,941 | +$22 +0.5% | — |
| 130d | my0nn1t2 fills | $1B | BuyNo>99¢ → 99¢ | $2,966 | −$12 −0.4% | 2 |
| 130d |  iotys | $1B | BuyNo100¢ → 99¢ | $2,030 | −$7 −0.4% | 2 |
| 172d |  v1nnee | $1B | SellNo>99¢ → 99¢ | $1,476 | +$7 +0.5% | — |
| 173d |  Boka | $1B | SellNo100¢ → 99¢ | $2,396 | +$8 +0.4% | — |
| 173d |  bl1st | $1B | SellNo100¢ → 99¢ | $2,463 | +$9 +0.4% | — |
| 180d | Boka | $1B | BuyNo>99¢ → 99¢ | $1,944 | −$13 −0.7% | 2 |
| 180d |  cedt0n | $1B | SellNo>99¢ → 99¢ | $1,092 | +$7 +0.7% | — |
| 204d |  b0rpie | $1B | BuyNo>99¢ → 99¢ | $2,926 | −$19 −0.7% | 2 |
| 204d | cedt0n2 fills | $1B | BuyNo>99¢ → 99¢ | $5,098 | −$32 −0.6% | 2 |
| 207d | donkeyVicious | $200M | SellNo94¢ → 91¢ | $1,012 | +$32 +3.2% | — |
| 207d | random-window | $200M | SellNo94¢ → 91¢ | $1,230 | +$39 +3.2% | — |
| 207d | sayen41 | $200M | SellNo94¢ → 91¢ | $1,217 | +$39 +3.2% | — |
| 207d | rescuePave | $200M | SellNo94¢ → 91¢ | $1,019 | +$33 +3.2% | — |
| 207d | Art-Canal | $200M | SellNo94¢ → 91¢ | $1,209 | +$39 +3.2% | — |
| 208d | symptom222 | $200M | SellNo93¢ → 91¢ | $1,118 | +$24 +2.2% | — |
| 208d | Lionnothing | $200M | SellNo93¢ → 91¢ | $1,070 | +$23 +2.2% | — |
| 208d | stick-blame | $200M | SellNo93¢ → 91¢ | $1,010 | +$22 +2.2% | — |
| 208d | brassMuseum | $200M | SellNo94¢ → 91¢ | $1,086 | +$35 +3.2% | — |
| 208d | donkey8347 | $200M | SellNo94¢ → 91¢ | $1,100 | +$35 +3.2% | — |
| 208d | daring4009 | $200M | SellNo93¢ → 91¢ | $1,212 | +$26 +2.2% | — |
| 208d | Gladrh86 | $200M | SellNo95¢ → 91¢ | $1,042 | +$44 +4.2% | — |
| 208d | suspectSpider | $200M | SellNo95¢ → 91¢ | $1,288 | +$54 +4.2% | — |
| 208d | v1nnee | $1B | BuyNo>99¢ → 99¢ | $3,590 | −$20 −0.6% | 2 |
| 209d | bl1st | $1B | BuyNo>99¢ → 99¢ | $1,649 | −$6 −0.4% | 2 |
| 214d | isabelletan001 | $1B | SellNo99¢ | $1,059 | +$2 +0.2% | — |
| 228d | Ready-Duckling | $200M | SellNo81¢ → 91¢ | $1,019 | −$125 −12% | — |
| 232d |  alanhutton | $200M | BuyNo92¢ → 91¢ | $1,564 | −$17 −1.1% | 2 |
| 233d | Ready-Duckling | $200M | BuyNo91¢ | $1,513 | $0 0.0% | 2 |
| 259d | mashutka | $400M | BuyNo93¢ | $1,674 | −$2 −0.1% | 2 |
| 327d |  0x2048Ba14eC0CAD6e8d308C25f6EFdfDE23b0f5 | $400M | BuyNo85¢ → 93¢ | $1,856 | +$172 +9.3% | 2 |
bafanglaicai168700 shares
Pranjal313 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Reya's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Reya (https://x.com/reya_xyz) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 22¢ for $70M means the market gives it about 22%.