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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| February 5 | 0% | −1 pts | −14 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| February 22 | 0% | −1 pts | −14 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| February 7 | 0% | 0 pts | −26 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| February 3 | 100% | +78 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| February 12 | 100% | +81 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| February 1 | 0% | 0 pts | −26 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| February 2 | 0% | 0 pts | −22 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| February 13 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| February 17 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| February 8 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| February 6 | 0% | 0 pts | −19 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| February 4 | 0% | — | −8 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| February 26 | 0% | −35 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| February 15 | 0% | — | −22 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| February 16 | 0% | — | −20 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| February 25 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| February 14 | 0% | 0 pts | −26 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| February 23 | 0% | — | −16 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| February 18 | 0% | — | −26 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| February 19 | 0% | — | −21 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| February 21 | 0% | — | −18 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| March 31 | 0% | −1 pts | −23 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| February 20 | 0% | — | −21 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| February 10 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| February 11 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| February 24 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| February 9 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| February 28 | 0% | −4 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| February 27 | 0% | −7 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 236d | February 26 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,681 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 | |
| 237d | SleeperHunter | February 26 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,654 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 237d | SleeperHunter | February 25 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,239 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 238d | SleeperHunter | February 26 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,148 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 238d | SleeperHunter | February 25 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,071 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 239d | February 24 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,716 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 | |
| 240d | February 22 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,098 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 | |
| 240d | February 22 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,997 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 | |
| 241d | gurenus | February 22 | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $2,374 | −$86 −3.6% | — |
| 242d | February 23 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,166 | −$1 −0.1% | — | |
| 242d | February 23 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,072 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 | |
| 244d | February 21 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,315 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 | |
| 244d | gurenus | February 21 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,110 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 244d | PassiveStrike | February 22 | SellYes88¢ → 0¢ | $1,098 | +$1,098 +100% | — |
| 244d | PassiveStrike | February 22 | BuyYes77¢ → 0¢ | $1,039 | −$1,039 −100% | 22 |
| 244d | February 22 | BuyNo83¢ → 100¢ | $1,300 | +$276 +21% | 21 | |
| 244d | SleeperHunter | February 22 | BuyNo78¢ → 100¢ | $1,455 | +$419 +29% | 21 |
| 244d | SleeperHunter | February 20 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,722 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 245d | February 19 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,736 | −$2 −0.1% | — | |
| 245d | SleeperHunter | February 20 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,669 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 245d | gurenus | February 20 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,021 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 245d | February 20 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,913 | +$12 +0.4% | 20 | |
| 246d | February 19 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,679 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 | |
| 246d | gurenus | February 19 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,020 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 246d | February 19 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,013 | +$4 +0.4% | 20 | |
| 247d | February 18 | BuyNo>99¢ | $10,167 | +$46 +0.5% | 20 | |
| 248d | February 17 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,205 | +$12 +0.2% | 20 | |
| 249d | SleeperHunter | February 18 | BuyNo83¢ → 100¢ | $2,199 | +$457 +21% | 20 |
| 249d | February 16 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,556 | +$14 +0.5% | 20 | |
| 250d | February 15 | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,813 | +$25 +0.3% | 20 | |
| 251d | SleeperHunter2 fills | February 13 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $6,681 | +$49 +0.7% | 20 |
| 251d | pechenka2311 | February 13 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,224 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 251d | pechenka2311 | February 14 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,094 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 251d | SleeperHunter | February 14 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,907 | −$4 −0.2% | — |
| 251d | February 14 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,651 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 | |
| 254d | February 12 | BuyYes>99¢ | $6,608 | +$19 +0.3% | 20 | |
| 254d | lan031043 | February 12 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,136 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 254d | Trustinghorse | February 12 | BuyYes>99¢ | $6,357 | +$22 +0.4% | 20 |
| 254d | February 12 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,461 | −$13 −0.9% | — | |
| 254d | 12100K3 fills | February 12 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,299 | +$20 +0.6% | 20 |
| 254d | February 12 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $3,587 | +$85 +2.4% | 20 | |
| 254d | 0x869a…d680 | February 12 | SellYes94¢ → 100¢ | $1,317 | −$85 −6.4% | — |
| 254d | February 12 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $2,250 | +$36 +1.6% | 20 | |
| 254d | Alex13371337 | February 12 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,426 | +$11 +0.8% | 20 |
| 254d | February 9 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,256 | −$1 −0.1% | — | |
| 254d | February 10 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,004 | −$1 −0.1% | — | |
| 255d | February 10 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,576 | +$10 +0.2% | 20 | |
| 256d | February 9 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,807 | +$9 +0.2% | 20 | |
| 256d | SleeperHunter | February 12 | BuyNo85¢ → 0¢ | $1,244 | −$1,244 −100% | 20 |
| 256d | SleeperHunter | February 10 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,092 | +$59 +5.4% | 20 |
| 256d | federal.finesser | February 10 | BuyYes54¢ → 0¢ | $2,000 | −$2,000 −100% | 20 |
| 257d | February 8 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,110 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 | |
| 257d | All-Shear | February 8 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,289 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 257d | All-Shear | February 8 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,290 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 257d | hkghbnhjhjhj | February 8 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,219 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 257d | hkghbnhjhjhj | February 8 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,220 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 257d | February 7 | BuyNo>99¢ | $11,219 | +$20 +0.2% | 20 | |
| 257d | Extravaganza123 | February 7 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,183 | −$10 −0.2% | — |
| 257d | PassiveStrike | February 7 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,010 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 257d | SleeperHunter3 fills | February 8 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,465 | +$78 +1.4% | 20 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Russian Armed Forces initiate a drone, missile, or air strike on Kyiv municipality on the listed date Eastern European Time (EET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Russian Armed Forces that impact Kyiv municipality's ground territory. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of the Kyiv municipality counts. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the Kyiv municipality's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by the Russian armed forces will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Ukrainian or Russian), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for February 5 means the market gives it about 0%.