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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $1B | 0% | −63 pts | −43 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 69d |
| $800M | 100% | +14 pts | +38 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | in 69d |
| $600M | 100% | +3 pts | +23 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | in 69d |
| $200M | 100% | — | +1 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | in 69d |
| $400M | 100% | +1 pts | +8 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | in 69d |
| $2B | 0% | −3 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 69d |
| $1.5B | 0% | −6 pts | −16 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 69d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 272d | mlinw2 fills | $600M | SellYes>99¢ | $4,188 | −$19 −0.5% | — |
| 272d |  CluelessEyes | $800M | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,358 | +$3 +0.1% | 2 |
| 272d |  youngsoros | $800M | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,480 | +$2 +0.1% | 2 |
| 272d | C03B | $600M | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,482 | +$4 +0.1% | 2 |
| 272d | CluelessEyes | $1B | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,925 | +$5 +0.1% | 2 |
| 272d |  devoteeOfBeshaba2 fills | $1B | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,847 | +$32 +0.5% | 2 |
| 272d | devoteeOfBeshaba2 fills | $800M | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,575 | +$25 +1.0% | 2 |
| 272d | J0ker11 | $1B | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,008 | +$6 +0.3% | 2 |
| 272d | CluelessEyes | $1.5B | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,756 | +$3 +0.1% | 2 |
| 272d | wistar | $1B | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,188 | +$12 +1.0% | 2 |
| 272d |  Burnmoneyuser | $1B | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,890 | +$49 +1.0% | 2 |
| 272d |  Infringe | $1B | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,496 | +$45 +1.0% | 2 |
| 272d | karmelion | $1B | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,107 | +$11 +1.0% | 2 |
| 272d |  ithinkthisisloser | $1B | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,501 | +$16 +1.1% | 2 |
| 272d | mlinw2 fills | $1B | SellNo89¢ → 100¢ | $2,268 | −$283 −12% | — |
| 272d | sleepin | $2B | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,415 | +$1 +0.1% | 2 |
| 272d | Gruesome-Violation | $800M | SellYes97¢ → 100¢ | $2,120 | −$58 −2.7% | — |
| 273d |  cr1mean | $800M | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,000 | +$32 +3.2% | 2 |
| 273d | b3tm0re | $1.5B | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,293 | +$3 +0.2% | 2 |
| 273d | EricaXBT | $400M | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,619 | +$3 +0.1% | 2 |
| 273d | 1231123123 | $400M | SellYes>99¢ | $1,480 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 273d | Infringe | $800M | SellYes95¢ → 100¢ | $5,539 | −$292 −5.3% | — |
| 273d | mlinw | $800M | SellYes97¢ → 100¢ | $3,163 | −$98 −3.1% | — |
| 273d | sportbetss | $1B | BuyNo72¢ → 100¢ | $2,664 | +$1,036 +39% | 2 |
| 273d | 1881aa2 fills | $800M | SellYes75¢ → 100¢ | $3,002 | −$1,023 −34% | — |
| 273d | karmelion | $400M | SellYes>99¢ | $1,138 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 273d | 1881aa2 fills | $800M | BuyYes89¢ → 100¢ | $3,530 | +$433 +12% | 2 |
| 273d | Infringe | $800M | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $5,221 | +$454 +8.7% | 2 |
| 273d | JohnWitcher | $800M | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $2,544 | +$222 +8.7% | 2 |
| 273d | JohnWitcher2 fills | $1B | BuyNo88¢ → 100¢ | $4,677 | +$625 +13% | 2 |
| 273d | xiaoming001 | $2B | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,406 | +$1 +0.1% | 2 |
| 273d |  TAMALIE2 fills | $2B | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,597 | +$6 +0.2% | 2 |
| 273d | nikowinwin | $1B | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $1,990 | +$221 +11% | 2 |
| 273d | zuihouxiazhu | $400M | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,352 | +$1 +0.1% | 2 |
| 273d | hackisamaze7 fills | $1B | BuyNo88¢ → 100¢ | $13,551 | +$1,803 +13% | 2 |
| 273d | birjesh9 fills | $1B | BuyNo89¢ → 100¢ | $16,227 | +$2,105 +13% | 2 |
| 273d | feika | $2B | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,638 | +$3 +0.2% | 2 |
| 273d | soxfeonn | $2B | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,189 | +$6 +0.2% | 2 |
| 273d | twokey | $2B | SellNo>99¢ | $2,062 | −$4 −0.2% | — |
| 273d | birjesh | $1B | SellNo86¢ → 100¢ | $1,636 | −$266 −16% | — |
| 273d | WTETH | $2B | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,125 | +$2 +0.1% | 2 |
| 273d | kevin-airdrop | $1.5B | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,050 | +$7 +0.7% | 2 |
| 273d | PM88812 fills | $1.5B | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,075 | +$15 +0.7% | 2 |
| 273d | pm8882q | $1.5B | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,045 | +$7 +0.7% | 2 |
| 273d | spark-12 fills | $1.5B | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,050 | +$17 +0.8% | 2 |
| 273d | jingming888 | $1.5B | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,025 | +$8 +0.8% | 2 |
| 273d | xuexi1989 | $1.5B | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,025 | +$8 +0.8% | 2 |
| 273d | JohnWitcher | $600M | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,224 | +$40 +1.2% | 2 |
| 273d | yulen2 fills | $1.5B | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $3,516 | +$142 +4.0% | 2 |
| 273d |  95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04 | $1.5B | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,094 | +$10 +0.9% | 2 |
| 273d | sewewww22 fills | $1.5B | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,702 | +$47 +1.3% | 2 |
| 273d | sewewww2 | $400M | SellYes>99¢ | $3,781 | −$8 −0.2% | — |
| 273d | Gnomik3 | $600M | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,610 | −$36 −2.3% | — |
| 273d |  goalone | $400M | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,105 | +$2 +0.1% | 2 |
| 273d | 0x59BA | $2B | SellNo>99¢ | $1,538 | −$7 −0.5% | — |
| 273d | lontou | $400M | SellYes>99¢ | $2,991 | −$9 −0.3% | — |
| 273d | mlinw2 fills | $400M | SellYes96¢ → 100¢ | $5,206 | −$231 −4.4% | — |
| 273d | 0x59BA | $1.5B | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,593 | −$16 −1.0% | — |
| 273d | jingyu01122 fills | $600M | SellYes97¢ → 100¢ | $3,802 | −$128 −3.4% | — |
| 273d | geraldhew89 | $2B | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,000 | +$8 +0.4% | 2 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Sentient's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Sentient doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for $1B means the market gives it about 0%.