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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Super Heavy booster explodes? | 100% | +5 pts | +10 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Chopsticks catch Super Heavy booster? | 0% | −2 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| September 30 | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| October 15 | 100% | +18 pts | +29 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Successful splash down? | 100% | +34 pts | +32 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| October 31 | 100% | +3 pts | +6 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 374d |  noreasapa | Super Heavy booster explodes? | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,199 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 374d |  userxp | Chopsticks catch Super Heavy booster? | SellNo>99¢ | $1,196 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 374d | iamgone | Chopsticks catch Super Heavy booster? | BuyNo>99¢ | $21,088 | +$25 +0.1% | 4 |
| 376d |  Chayzon | Successful splash down? | BuyYes69¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$899 +45% | 4 |
| 378d | Rewarding-ResortNew account | Super Heavy booster explodes? | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $3,300 | +$183 +5.6% | 6 |
| 388d |  AgricultureSecretary | September 30 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,188 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
This is a market on the outcome of the SpaceX Starship Flight Test 11.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for Super Heavy booster explodes? means the market gives it about 100%.