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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Successful splash down? | 25% | +6 pts | +3 pts | 24¢ · 25¢ (1¢) | — | in 250d |
| Chopsticks catch Super Heavy booster? | 67% | +1 pts | +16 pts | 65¢ · 69¢ (4¢) | $318 | in 250d |
| November 30, 2026 | 67% | — | −11 pts | 65¢ · 69¢ (4¢) | $137 | in 38d |
| Chopsticks catch Starship? | 70% | −2 pts | +25 pts | 68¢ · 71¢ (3¢) | $119 | in 250d |
| Super Heavy booster explodes? | 40% | +2 pts | −4 pts | 39¢ · 40¢ (1¢) | $62 | in 250d |
| November 15, 2026 | 11% | −5 pts | −29 pts | 9¢ · 13¢ (4¢) | $25 | in 23d |
| October 31, 2026 | 2% | −1 pts | +1 pts | 2¢ · 3¢ (1¢) | $10 | in 8d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d | 1walrus | October 31, 2026 | BuyNo94¢ → 98¢ | $1,989 | +$81 +4.1% | 24 |
GonTanaka20 shares
Dr.PNL1 sharesThis is a market on the outcome of the SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 25¢ for Successful splash down? means the market gives it about 25%.