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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chopsticks catch Super Heavy? | 0% | −1 pts | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Launched by May 31 | 100% | +20 pts | +53 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Super Heavy explodes? | 100% | +25 pts | +34 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | — |
| Successful splash down? | 0% | −51 pts | −51 pts | — · <1¢ | — | — |
| Launched by May 20 | 0% | — | −16 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| April 30 | 0% | −1 pts | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Trump attends launch? | 0% | −5 pts | −9 pts | — · <1¢ | — | — |
| April 15 | 0% | — | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 513d | CrushingIt | Super Heavy explodes? | SellYes>99¢ | $1,140 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 513d | 0x1C7Ea49c1B1badD8cdDf6fBD3e2cbCaf7fe33 fills | Super Heavy explodes? | BuyYes>99¢ | $9,896 | +$39 +0.4% | 4 |
| 513d | 0x1C7Ea49c1B1badD8cdDf6fBD3e2cbCaf7fe3 | Successful splash down? | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,512 | +$3 +0.1% | 4 |
| 513d | Skip-instructs-send-all-funds-to-this-acc2 fills | Super Heavy explodes? | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $3,315 | −$56 −1.7% | — |
| 513d |  imtiredb0ss | Successful splash down? | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,565 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 513d |  Rr55 | Chopsticks catch Super Heavy? | SellNo>99¢ | $5,852 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 513d | Flipperd | Launched by May 31 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,645 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 513d | rwo | Chopsticks catch Super Heavy? | SellNo>99¢ | $3,996 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 513d | rwo | Chopsticks catch Super Heavy? | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,996 | +$4 +0.1% | 4 |
| 513d |  RewardsPeasant | Super Heavy explodes? | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $1,253 | +$108 +8.6% | 4 |
| 513d |  noreasapa | Chopsticks catch Super Heavy? | BuyNo>99¢ | $8,866 | +$22 +0.3% | 4 |
| 513d |  Dropper | Launched by May 31 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $2,484 | +$100 +4.0% | 20 |
| 513d | rekcah | Chopsticks catch Super Heavy? | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,114 | +$20 +0.4% | 4 |
| 514d | Bobbidy | Super Heavy explodes? | BuyYes82¢ → 100¢ | $1,069 | +$227 +21% | 4 |
| 514d | Skip-instructs-send-all-funds-to-this-acc | Super Heavy explodes? | BuyYes84¢ → 100¢ | $4,199 | +$801 +19% | 4 |
| 515d | dmz | Chopsticks catch Super Heavy? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,629 | +$57 +1.0% | 4 |
| 524d | Bobbidy | Chopsticks catch Super Heavy? | BuyNo70¢ → 100¢ | $2,642 | +$1,132 +43% | 4 |
| 524d | Rr55 | Chopsticks catch Super Heavy? | BuyNo70¢ → 100¢ | $1,050 | +$450 +43% | 4 |
| 524d | Skip-instructs-send-all-funds-to-this-acc | Chopsticks catch Super Heavy? | BuyNo70¢ → 100¢ | $4,059 | +$1,741 +43% | 4 |
| 525d | SweetChariot | Launched by May 20 | BuyNo100¢ | $1,703 | +$9 +0.5% | 20 |
| 530d | Flipperd2 fills | Launched by May 31 | BuyYes60¢ → 100¢ | $2,329 | +$1,553 +67% | 20 |
| 531d |  Vanquish | Launched by May 31 | BuyYes60¢ → 100¢ | $1,942 | +$1,297 +67% | 20 |
| 535d | Vessan | Launched by May 31 | SellYes55¢ → 100¢ | $23,385 | −$19,133 −82% | — |
| 535d | Vessan | Launched by May 31 | BuyYes56¢ → 100¢ | $23,811 | +$18,708 +79% | 20 |
This is a market on the outcomes of SpaceX's ninth flight test of the Starship rocket.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for Chopsticks catch Super Heavy? means the market gives it about 0%.
