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Polymarket · ClimateClosed
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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 or more states | 100% | 0 pts | +55 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| 0 states | 0% | — | −27 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 1-2 states | 0% | −37 pts | −26 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 3-4 states | 0% | 0 pts | −26 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 5-6 states | 0% | 0 pts | −39 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 7-9 states | 0% | 0 pts | −38 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
No trades of $1,000 or more lately.
bjprolo8 sharesThis market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 1, 2026. Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes". The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered. Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday. Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final. The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 10 or more states means the market gives it about 100%.