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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $50M | 64% | −11 pts | −21 pts | 45¢ · 82¢ (37¢) | — | in 435d |
| $500M | 33% | −1 pts | +7 pts | 23¢ · 42¢ (19¢) | — | in 435d |
| $100M | 64% | −12 pts | +9 pts | 50¢ · 77¢ (27¢) | $891 | in 435d |
| $300M | 59% | +2 pts | +18 pts | 29¢ · 88¢ (59¢) | — | in 435d |
| $200M | 67% | −1 pts | +18 pts | 49¢ · 85¢ (36¢) | — | in 435d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 65d |  EleveResearch | $50M | SellYes60¢ → 64¢ | $1,599 | −$90 −5.6% | — |
| 227d |  BOOSTJUICE | $100M | SellNo31¢ → 37¢ | $1,550 | −$275 −18% | — |
| 227d | BOOSTJUICE | $100M | BuyNo87¢ → 37¢ | $4,322 | −$2,509 −58% | 4 |
| 228d | AmpleCrown | $50M | SellNo50¢ → 37¢ | $17,719 | +$4,784 +27% | — |
| 228d | AmpleCrown | $50M | BuyNo50¢ → 37¢ | $17,438 | −$4,708 −27% | 2 |
altaironmission348 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Surf's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Surf (https://x.com/SurfAI) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 64¢ for $50M means the market gives it about 64%.