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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 9 | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| December 10 | 0% | −18 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| December 11 | 0% | −20 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| December 12 | 0% | −11 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| December 13 | 0% | −5 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| December 14 | 0% | −20 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| December 15 | 0% | −9 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 318d |  ZhangMuZhi- | December 10 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,656 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 318d | ZhangMuZhi- | December 11 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,318 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 |
| 318d | ZhangMuZhi- | December 12 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,149 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 318d | ZhangMuZhi- | December 13 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,155 | +$25 +0.8% | 20 |
| 318d | ZhangMuZhi- | December 14 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,729 | +$8 +0.5% | 20 |
| 318d | ZhangMuZhi- | December 15 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,838 | +$11 +0.4% | 20 |
| 318d |  tourists | December 11 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,603 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 318d | oVyg7f2 fills | December 11 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,737 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 318d | cigarettes4 fills | December 13 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,044 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 318d | ZhangMuZhi- | December 9 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,925 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 318d | cigarettes3 fills | December 11 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,358 | +$12 +0.3% | 20 |
| 318d | cigarettes3 fills | December 10 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,361 | +$9 +0.2% | 20 |
| 318d |  Gurupolimarket | December 9 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,736 | +$10 +0.6% | 20 |
| 318d | tourists2 fills | December 9 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,059 | +$15 +0.5% | 20 |
| 318d | wokerjoesleeper2 fills | December 11 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,156 | +$9 +0.4% | 20 |
| 318d | wokerjoesleeper | December 10 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,114 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 318d | cigarettes2 fills | December 12 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,597 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 318d | wokerjoesleeper | December 13 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,049 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 318d | wokerjoesleeper | December 12 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,049 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 318d | 0x7131cB618fb195C70E8e629C45199096833C29 | December 9 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,069 | +$21 +1.0% | 20 |
| 318d |  flow-trader-at-optiver | December 11 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,172 | +$68 +5.8% | 20 |
| 318d | Huludubu | December 9 | BuyYes85¢ → 100¢ | $1,548 | +$265 +17% | 21 |
| 318d | flow-trader-at-optiver | December 13 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,181 | +$58 +4.9% | 20 |
| 318d | flow-trader-at-optiver2 fills | December 14 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,298 | +$11 +0.5% | 20 |
| 318d | flow-trader-at-optiver2 fills | December 15 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,297 | +$12 +0.5% | 20 |
| 318d | flow-trader-at-optiver | December 12 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,194 | +$45 +3.8% | 20 |
| 318d | flow-trader-at-optiver | December 10 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,180 | +$59 +5.0% | 20 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Thailand initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Cambodian soil or any Cambodian embassy or consulate on the specified date Indochina Time (GMT+7) before any other listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Thai military forces that impact Cambodian ground territory or any official Cambodian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Cambodian soil is hit by an Thailand missile, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the Thailand government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Cambodian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Thai ground operatives will not qualify. If no qualifying strike occurs within market timeframe, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity as to whether a qualifying strike occurred, this market may remain open after resolution time for confirming evidence.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for December 9 means the market gives it about 100%.