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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 100% | +57 pts | +74 pts | 99¢ · >99¢ (1¢) | — | ended |
No trades of $1,000 or more lately.
On July 2, it was reported that a group of tech billionaires led by Anduril co-founder Palmer Luckey are launching a new crypto-focused U.S. bank (see: https://www.reuters.com/business/tech-billionaires-led-by-palmer-luckey-launch-new-bank-rival-svb-ft-reports-2025-07-02/). This market will resolve to "Yes" if, a national bank charter (conditional or unconditional) is granted by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) or a relevant state banking authority (e.g. Texas Department of Banking, New York State Department of Financial Services, etc) to a legal entity publicly recognized as the Erebor bank project backed by Palmer Luckey, by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A name other than “Erebor” or a change in Palmer Luckey’s involvement will still qualify, as long as credible sources clearly identify the entity as the same project originally known as the Erebor initiative. The resolution source will be official announcements from a relevant banking authority and Erebor, as well as a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 100%.