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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $500M | 0% | −1 pts | −44 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 69d |
| $200M | 0% | −30 pts | −49 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 69d |
| $100M | 100% | +9 pts | +50 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | in 69d |
| $50M | 100% | +1 pts | +46 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | in 69d |
| $20M | 100% | 0 pts | +46 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | in 69d |
| $300M | 0% | −2 pts | −48 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 69d |
| $800M | 0% | 0 pts | −45 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 69d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 261d |  0xjames | $300M | SellNo>99¢ | $1,049 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 261d | kissbabyy | $200M | SellNo>99¢ | $1,103 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 261d | kissbabyy | $100M | SellYes>99¢ | $4,911 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 261d |  Infringe | $200M | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,414 | +$1 +0.1% | 2 |
| 261d |  Tuku | $200M | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,609 | +$33 +2.0% | 2 |
| 261d |  hack-vc | $100M | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,335 | +$2 +0.1% | 2 |
| 261d | Hreik | $100M | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,016 | +$2 +0.1% | 2 |
| 261d |  degenofweb3 | $100M | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,718 | +$3 +0.1% | 2 |
| 261d | Laurenman | $200M | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,217 | +$38 +3.1% | 2 |
| 261d | degenofweb3 | $300M | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,738 | +$2 +0.1% | 2 |
| 261d | AlphaTipsChannel | $200M | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,248 | +$52 +4.2% | 2 |
| 261d | Laurenman | $20M | SellYes>99¢ | $3,337 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 261d | Infringe2 fills | $100M | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,292 | +$16 +0.5% | 2 |
| 261d | kissbabyy | $300M | SellNo>99¢ | $1,009 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 261d | ZDR-316 | $500M | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,750 | +$3 +0.1% | 2 |
| 261d | Laurenman | $20M | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,004 | +$3 +0.1% | 2 |
| 261d | hooooser | $200M | BuyNo78¢ → 100¢ | $1,524 | +$423 +28% | 2 |
| 261d | toanhtoanh2 fills | $500M | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,106 | +$14 +0.2% | 2 |
| 261d | jimmyhasballs | $500M | BuyNo>99¢ | $8,559 | +$17 +0.2% | 2 |
| 261d | C03B | $500M | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,462 | +$19 +0.2% | 2 |
| 261d | retardinho | $500M | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,990 | +$10 +0.2% | 2 |
| 261d | toanhtoanh | $50M | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,440 | +$1 +0.1% | 2 |
| 261d |  OnePercentClub | $500M | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,147 | +$2 +0.2% | 2 |
| 261d | seewe | $500M | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,900 | +$6 +0.2% | 2 |
| 261d |  kongxm | $500M | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,000 | +$6 +0.2% | 2 |
| 261d | achaacha | $300M | BuyNo100¢ | $1,449 | +$7 +0.5% | 2 |
| 261d | sdgw3269 | $500M | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,447 | +$5 +0.2% | 2 |
| 261d | kevin-airdrop | $300M | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,445 | +$19 +0.8% | 2 |
| 261d | Infringe | $200M | BuyYes70¢ → 0¢ | $1,373 | −$1,373 −100% | 2 |
| 261d | jbr2 fills | $500M | BuyNo>99¢ | $17,402 | +$36 +0.2% | 2 |
| 261d | kevin-airdrop | $500M | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,296 | +$4 +0.3% | 2 |
| 261d | Luyes | $500M | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,507 | +$18 +0.4% | 2 |
| 261d | Number0 | $500M | BuyNo100¢ | $4,408 | +$22 +0.5% | 2 |
| 261d | metatron692 fills | $100M | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,290 | +$30 +1.3% | 2 |
| 261d | zsn9 | $50M | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,049 | +$1 +0.1% | 2 |
| 261d |  HeWho-REMAINS | $50M | SellYes>99¢ | $1,839 | −$7 −0.4% | — |
| 261d | cggs | $50M | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,180 | +$1 +0.1% | 2 |
| 261d | 0x15ce9A512F0d4475ABb6DbA71ae702E2Dc1703 | $50M | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,147 | +$4 +0.2% | 2 |
| 261d | vxf | $50M | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,366 | +$3 +0.2% | 2 |
| 262d | btacc | $500M | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,500 | +$9 +0.3% | 2 |
| 262d | sdgw32692 fills | $50M | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,045 | +$21 +0.4% | 2 |
| 262d |  Zaratustra | $20M | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,000 | +$7 +0.3% | 2 |
| 262d | seedah | $20M | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,077 | +$19 +0.4% | 2 |
| 262d |  EleveResearch | $100M | SellYes69¢ → 100¢ | $1,290 | −$580 −45% | — |
| 262d | tianxia123 | $20M | SellYes>99¢ | $1,065 | −$5 −0.5% | — |
| 262d | rusgreat | $800M | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,056 | +$3 +0.3% | 2 |
| 262d | ozithe0x | $200M | SellNo82¢ → 100¢ | $1,415 | −$302 −21% | — |
| 262d | rusgreat | $200M | BuyNo87¢ → 100¢ | $1,984 | +$296 +15% | 2 |
| 262d | birjesh4 fills | $500M | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $11,440 | −$108 −0.9% | — |
| 262d | birjesh25 fills | $500M | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $74,321 | +$779 +1.0% | 2 |
| 262d | Dines23 fills | $500M | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $66,794 | +$717 +1.1% | 2 |
| 262d | Dines | $500M | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,970 | −$30 −1.0% | — |
| 262d | TommyKFCV50 | $500M | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,442 | +$28 +1.1% | 2 |
| 262d | TommyKFCV50 | $800M | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,172 | +$9 +0.7% | 2 |
| 262d | hackisamaze | $500M | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,011 | +$19 +1.8% | 2 |
| 262d | Adelius | $20M | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,451 | +$10 +0.7% | 2 |
| 262d |  cr1mean2 fills | $20M | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,817 | −$25 −0.9% | — |
| 263d | hackisamaze | $800M | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,205 | +$12 +1.0% | 2 |
| 263d | kevin-airdrop | $20M | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $5,251 | +$40 +0.8% | 2 |
| 263d | ozithe0x | $200M | BuyNo68¢ → 100¢ | $1,161 | +$556 +48% | 2 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Tria's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Tria (https://x.com/useTria) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for $500M means the market gives it about 0%.