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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 31 | 100% | +77 pts | +70 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| January 17 | 0% | −6 pts | −31 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| January 24 | 100% | +93 pts | +80 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| January 10 | 0% | −5 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| January 5 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 273d |  JoachimPeiper | January 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,022 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 273d |  Burnmoneyuser | January 24 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,090 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 273d | stealer | January 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,752 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 273d |  arabsearch | January 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,005 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 273d |  Rommel💀 | January 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,274 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 273d |  AgricultureSecretary | January 31 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $6,248 | +$63 +1.0% | 20 |
| 273d | AgricultureSecretary | January 24 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,318 | +$23 +1.0% | 20 |
| 273d |  tupac | January 24 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,622 | +$24 +1.5% | 20 |
| 273d | tupac | January 31 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$41 +2.0% | 20 |
| 273d |  .jeet | January 24 | BuyYes90¢ → 100¢ | $1,499 | +$164 +11% | 23 |
| 273d | .jeet2 fills | January 31 | BuyYes90¢ → 100¢ | $3,498 | +$402 +11% | 20 |
| 273d | ronaldk | January 31 | BuyYes85¢ → 100¢ | $2,300 | +$412 +18% | 20 |
| 273d | 0xB29304109238401 | January 31 | BuyYes70¢ → 100¢ | $1,099 | +$479 +44% | 20 |
| 280d |  Moonshooternow | January 17 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $2,500 | +$78 +3.1% | 20 |
| 286d | Michael5289 | January 10 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,008 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 287d | plankton2 | January 5 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,962 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
Grocerystore.254 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump, the US government, or US armed forces announces that US armed forces conducted a new strike against any watercraft designated as a narco terrorist target between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any announcement made within this market's timeframe of a qualifying, previously unannounced strike will count, regardless of whether the strike occurred within this market's timeframe. A qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, naval guns, artillery, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces at a qualifying watercraft that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting. A boarding or the use of small arms fire will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source will be official information from the US government or armed forces; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for January 31 means the market gives it about 100%.