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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 100% | +49 pts | +28 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| December 12 | 0% | −11 pts | −44 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| December 19 | 100% | +77 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 312d | yougotme3 fills | December 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,492 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 312d | yougotme2 fills | December 19 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,684 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 312d |  Car | December 31 | BuyYes90¢ → 100¢ | $1,440 | +$160 +11% | 20 |
| 318d |  Parz1vaI | December 12 | BuyNo72¢ → 100¢ | $1,079 | +$420 +39% | 20 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump, the US government, or US armed forces announces that US armed forces conducted a new strike against any watercraft designated as a narco terrorist target between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any announcement made within this market's timeframe of a qualifying, previously unannounced strike will count, regardless of whether the strike occurred within this market's timeframe. A qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, naval guns, artillery, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces at a qualifying watercraft that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting. A boarding or the use of small arms fire will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source will be official information from the US government or armed forces; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for December 31 means the market gives it about 100%.