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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 14 | 100% | +63 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| November 18 | 100% | +43 pts | — | >99¢ · >99¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| November 22 | 100% | +33 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 344d |  Allinnothing | November 14 | BuyYes>99¢ | $8,883 | +$9 +0.1% | 20 |
| 344d | LuckyPuncher | November 14 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,000 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 344d | zxc368 | November 14 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,929 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 344d | zxc368 | November 18 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,127 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 344d | zxc368 | November 22 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,046 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 344d |  JAHODA | November 14 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,621 | +$5 +0.2% | 20 |
| 344d |  Alphax | November 14 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,997 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 344d | Allinnothing | November 18 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,094 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 344d | Allinnothing | November 22 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,522 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 344d |  KnureKnume | November 14 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,181 | −$22 −1.0% | — |
| 344d | ot3drew | November 14 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,141 | −$12 −1.0% | — |
| 344d |  Car | November 22 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,629 | +$31 +1.2% | 20 |
| 344d |  Dropper | November 14 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $2,296 | +$47 +2.1% | 21 |
| 344d |  Ahpo | November 14 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,830 | +$96 +5.3% | 22 |
| 344d |  A110 | November 18 | SellYes79¢ → 100¢ | $1,860 | −$492 −26% | — |
| 344d | Car | November 14 | BuyYes89¢ → 100¢ | $1,622 | +$202 +12% | 23 |
| 344d | 202510212 fills | November 14 | BuyYes86¢ → 100¢ | $3,412 | +$556 +16% | 24 |
| 344d |  Patroclus2 fills | November 14 | BuyYes85¢ → 100¢ | $3,874 | +$692 +18% | 24 |
| 345d | dnlppvc | November 14 | BuyNo82¢ → 0¢ | $1,443 | −$1,443 −100% | 25 |
| 345d | Yummy4 | November 18 | BuyNo47¢ → 0¢ | $1,277 | −$1,277 −100% | 22 |
| 345d | cashsquared | November 14 | BuyNo80¢ → 0¢ | $2,500 | −$2,500 −100% | 23 |
| 346d | Huludubu | November 22 | BuyYes86¢ → 100¢ | $1,195 | +$195 +16% | 20 |
| 346d | Yummy4 | November 14 | BuyNo46¢ → 0¢ | $1,036 | −$1,036 −100% | 25 |
| 347d |  luckymanisme | November 14 | SellNo35¢ → 0¢ | $3,500 | +$3,500 +100% | — |
| 347d | luckymanisme | November 14 | BuyNo44¢ → 0¢ | $4,400 | −$4,400 −100% | 27 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump, the US government, or US armed forces announces that US armed forces conducted a new strike against any watercraft designated as a narco terrorist target between November 10, 7:10 PM ET, and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any announcement made within this market's timeframe of a qualifying, previously unannounced strike will count, regardless of whether the strike occurred within this market's timeframe. A qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, naval guns, artillery, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces at a qualifying watercraft that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting. A boarding or the use of small arms fire will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source will be official information from the US government or armed forces, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for November 14 means the market gives it about 100%.