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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 48% - 50% | 100% | +20 pts | 0 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <48% | 0% | −5 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 50% - 52% | 0% | −5 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 52% - 54% | 0% | −3 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 54% - 56% | 0% | −2 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 56% - 58% | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 58%+ | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 631d | ThereIsNoSpoon | 48% - 50% | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,924 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 631d |  ExhaustedBoyBilly | 54% - 56% | BuyNo>99¢ | $10,723 | +$11 +0.1% | 4 |
| 631d | ExhaustedBoyBilly | 52% - 54% | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,191 | +$9 +0.1% | 4 |
| 631d |  noreasapa | 48% - 50% | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,147 | +$13 +1.2% | 4 |
| 632d | Neoss | 54% - 56% | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,122 | +$19 +0.9% | 4 |
| 633d |  willis1111 | 54% - 56% | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $2,160 | +$90 +4.2% | 5 |
| 633d | willis1111 | 56% - 58% | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,304 | +$13 +1.0% | 4 |
| 638d | willis1111 | <48% | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,598 | +$102 +6.4% | 4 |
This market will resolve according to Donald Trump’s approval rating as reported by RealCelarPolitics (RCP) as of January 31, 2025, 12:00 PM ET (noon). The resolution source will be RCP's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/approval-rating, specifically the approval rating listed in the ‘APPROVE’ column for ‘RCP AVERAGE’. Changes in the methodology by which RCP calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. This market will resolve according to the value as of 12:00 PM ET noon on the listed date. If the RCP Average is unavailable at this time, the last listed value will be used. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 48% - 50% means the market gives it about 100%.