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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 778d |  ExhaustedBoyBilly4 fills | Kamala flips Trump on Silver's Bulletin by Sept 6? | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $20,199 | +$1,371 +6.8% | 4 |
| 778d |  punishedgoon | Kamala flips Trump on Silver's Bulletin by Sept 6? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,915 | −$21 −0.7% | — |
| 778d | aaabbb4 fills | Kamala flips Trump on Silver's Bulletin by Sept 6? | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $8,247 | −$247 −3.0% | — |
| 778d |  MrNFT | Kamala flips Trump on Silver's Bulletin by Sept 6? | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,447 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 779d | kingfisher2 fills | Kamala flips Trump on Silver's Bulletin by Sept 6? | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $12,586 | +$364 +2.9% | 4 |
| 780d | punishedgoon3 fills | Kamala flips Trump on Silver's Bulletin by Sept 6? | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $9,872 | +$612 +6.2% | 5 |
| 780d |  DonaldinhoTrumpito | Kamala flips Trump on Silver's Bulletin by Sept 6? | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $20,496 | +$1,101 +5.4% | 5 |
| 781d | ExhaustedBoyBilly | Kamala flips Trump on Silver's Bulletin by Sept 6? | SellNo92¢ → 100¢ | $2,817 | −$245 −8.7% | — |
| 781d | ALevinson | Kamala flips Trump on Silver's Bulletin by Sept 6? | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $1,255 | +$139 +11% | 6 |
| 781d |  just.some.guy | Kamala flips Trump on Silver's Bulletin by Sept 6? | SellNo87¢ → 100¢ | $1,305 | −$195 −15% | — |
| 781d | just.some.guy | Kamala flips Trump on Silver's Bulletin by Sept 6? | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $4,182 | +$386 +9.2% | 5 |
| 781d | aaabbb5 fills | Kamala flips Trump on Silver's Bulletin by Sept 6? | BuyNo86¢ → 100¢ | $7,854 | +$1,319 +17% | 5 |
| 783d |  sigh2 fills | Kamala flips Trump on Silver's Bulletin by Sept 6? | BuyNo80¢ → 100¢ | $3,109 | +$798 +26% | 5 |
| 784d | markitzero | Kamala flips Trump on Silver's Bulletin by Sept 6? | BuyYes51¢ → 0¢ | $1,020 | −$1,020 −100% | 6 |
| 785d | wlkr1 | Kamala flips Trump on Silver's Bulletin by Sept 6? | BuyNo59¢ → 100¢ | $1,239 | +$861 +69% | 6 |
| 785d |  0xFJAFJKLDSKF7JKFDJ | Kamala flips Trump on Silver's Bulletin by Sept 6? | SellYes70¢ → 0¢ | $2,100 | +$2,100 +100% | — |
| 785d | 0xFJAFJKLDSKF7JKFDJ | Kamala flips Trump on Silver's Bulletin by Sept 6? | BuyYes66¢ → 0¢ | $1,980 | −$1,980 −100% | 4 |
| 785d | PrinceHal3 fills | Kamala flips Trump on Silver's Bulletin by Sept 6? | BuyNo43¢ → 100¢ | $3,778 | +$5,099 +135% | 6 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kamala Harris is more likely to win the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election than Donald Trump according to the Silver Bulletin for any date between August 30 and September 6, 2024 (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as a flip occurs, or otherwise once figures are available for every date within this market's range. If there are updates to previous figures before the release of the last figure it will count for this market. However, any updates after the release of the September 6 figures will not be considered. The resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's 2024 presidential election forecast, https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model, specifically the probability of winning the Electoral College. Note: Ties will not qualify as a flip. The model must show Kamala Harris with a greater probability of winning the electoral college than Donald Trump.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 0%.