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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | −1 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 763d |  456ythgbvcadscvb | Trump Silver Bulletin odds >60% Friday? | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,898 | +$10 +0.1% | 4 |
| 763d |  itsgg4 fills | Trump Silver Bulletin odds >60% Friday? | BuyNo>99¢ | $37,726 | +$43 +0.1% | 4 |
| 764d | PrinceHal | Trump Silver Bulletin odds >60% Friday? | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,992 | +$8 +0.2% | 4 |
| 764d |  MrNFT | Trump Silver Bulletin odds >60% Friday? | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,343 | +$4 +0.3% | 4 |
| 764d |  Rasalgethi3 fills | Trump Silver Bulletin odds >60% Friday? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $6,813 | −$57 −0.8% | — |
| 764d |  ExhaustedBoyBilly | Trump Silver Bulletin odds >60% Friday? | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,001 | +$7 +0.4% | 4 |
| 765d |  50Whence | Trump Silver Bulletin odds >60% Friday? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,106 | +$17 +1.5% | 4 |
| 765d | semi | Trump Silver Bulletin odds >60% Friday? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,275 | +$27 +2.1% | 4 |
| 765d |  beigesun | Trump Silver Bulletin odds >60% Friday? | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $4,647 | −$144 −3.1% | — |
| 766d | Rasalgethi2 fills | Trump Silver Bulletin odds >60% Friday? | BuyNo88¢ → 100¢ | $3,701 | +$520 +14% | 5 |
| 768d | beigesun2 fills | Trump Silver Bulletin odds >60% Friday? | BuyNo87¢ → 100¢ | $2,951 | +$455 +15% | 5 |
| 769d | hideo | Trump Silver Bulletin odds >60% Friday? | BuyNo86¢ → 100¢ | $2,580 | +$420 +16% | 5 |
| 770d | 1914L | Trump Silver Bulletin odds >60% Friday? | BuyNo87¢ → 100¢ | $3,737 | +$558 +15% | 5 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump has a 60.1% or greater chance of winning the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election according to the Silver Bulletin election forecast on September 20, 2024. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's 2024 presidential election forecast, https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model, specifically the probability of winning the Electoral College. This market will resolve according to the datapoint for September 20 when the datapoint first become available. If no datapoint for September 20 is available by September 30, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the nearest previous figures to September 20.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 0%.