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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 29 | 100% | +85 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| October 25 | 0% | −12 pts | — | — · 1¢ | — | ended |
| October 26 | 0% | −3 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| October 27 | 0% | −2 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| October 28 | 0% | −1 pts | −19 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| October 30 | 0% | −2 pts | −17 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| October 31 | 0% | −4 pts | −17 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 356d | esac4 fills | October 28 | BuyNo>99¢ | $20,207 | +$44 +0.2% | 20 |
| 356d |  Schizoaffective.On.Acid | October 28 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,020 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 357d | Cryptokhidd999 | October 30 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,204 | −$6 −0.5% | — |
| 357d | Formal-OdysseyNew account | October 30 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,355 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 357d | Formal-OdysseyNew account | October 31 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,590 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 357d |  UwO | October 31 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,793 | +$55 +3.1% | 20 |
| 358d | Yeahssd | October 28 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,142 | +$7 +0.6% | 20 |
| 359d | woshiyeye | October 28 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $6,090 | +$38 +0.6% | 20 |
| 359d | SunnySam | October 28 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,163 | +$7 +0.6% | 20 |
| 359d | de100kman | October 28 | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,262 | −$34 −2.7% | — |
| 359d |  JoeTrum | October 29 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,071 | +$6 +0.6% | 20 |
| 359d |  ChoosePoverty | October 29 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,456 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 359d |  Burnmoneyuser | October 29 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,562 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 359d |  Car2 fills | October 29 | BuyYes90¢ → 100¢ | $2,146 | +$250 +12% | 22 |
| 361d | de100kman | October 28 | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,200 | +$96 +8.0% | 21 |
| 361d | esac | October 27 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,078 | +$12 +1.1% | 20 |
| 362d |  Imeancurry | October 26 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,066 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 362d |  PredictionYogi2 fills | October 26 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,474 | +$29 +0.8% | 20 |
| 362d | esac3 fills | October 26 | BuyNo>99¢ | $16,956 | +$29 +0.2% | 20 |
| 362d | dezznuts | October 26 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,328 | +$27 +1.2% | 20 |
| 362d | idontknowanythingbutmaybeiknownothing3 fills | October 26 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $6,222 | +$104 +1.7% | 20 |
| 362d |  369market | October 26 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,074 | +$15 +1.4% | 20 |
| 362d | 2d6315 | October 26 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,999 | +$26 +1.3% | 20 |
| 363d | fc7b14 | October 25 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,018 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 363d | esac2 fills | October 25 | BuyNo>99¢ | $10,628 | +$11 +0.1% | 20 |
Basquetipster809 sharesThis market will resolve based on whether the US armed forces conduct a strike against any watercraft designated as a narco terrorist target in the Western hemisphere on a given date in ET. A qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, naval guns, artillery, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces at a qualifying watercraft that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting. A boarding or the use of small arms fire will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for October 29 means the market gives it about 100%.