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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 100% | +4 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 482d | Ordon | Trump trade deal before August? | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,790 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 482d |  imtiredb0ss2 fills | Trump trade deal before August? | BuyYes>99¢ | $6,752 | +$13 +0.2% | 20 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over trade and/or tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and another country, or a multi-country entity such as the European Union, between June 24 and July 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only deals which are officially announced by both parties will qualify. Informal announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the listed country/entity, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 100%.