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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump by 0.1-0.4 | 100% | +68 pts | 0 pts | 99¢ · >99¢ (1¢) | — | ended |
| Trump by 2.5+ | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Trump by 2-2.4 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Trump by 1.5-1.9 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Trump by 1-1.4 | 0% | −1 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Trump by 0.5-0.9 | 0% | −2 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Harris by 0-0.4 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Harris by 0.5-0.9 | 0% | −5 pts | 0 pts | — · 2¢ | — | ended |
| Harris by 1.0-1.4+ | 0% | −8 pts | 0 pts | — · 2¢ | — | ended |
| Harris by 1.5-1.9 | 0% | −2 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Harris by 2-2.4 | 0% | −1 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Harris by 2.5+ | 0% | −1 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 717d | VvVv5 fills | Harris by 0-0.4 | BuyNo>99¢ | $86,092 | +$142 +0.2% | 10 |
| 718d |  aldynspeedruns2 fills | Trump by 0.1-0.4 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $44,059 | +$224 +0.5% | 10 |
| 718d |  ExhaustedBoyBilly3 fills | Trump by 0.1-0.4 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $20,596 | +$230 +1.1% | 10 |
| 718d | aldynspeedruns | Harris by 1.5-1.9 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,229 | +$9 +0.1% | 10 |
| 718d |  AgricultureSecretary2 fills | Trump by 0.1-0.4 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $14,740 | +$149 +1.0% | 10 |
| 718d | ExhaustedBoyBilly | Harris by 1.5-1.9 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $9,173 | +$65 +0.7% | 10 |
| 720d | ExhaustedBoyBilly | Trump by 2-2.4 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,066 | +$14 +1.3% | 10 |
This is a market on the polling margin between Trump and Harris on November 4.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for Trump by 0.1-0.4 means the market gives it about 100%.