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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harris by 0.6-1 | 100% | +36 pts | 0 pts | 100¢ · 100¢ (1¢) | — | ended |
| Trump by 1+ | 0% | −1 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Trump by 0.5-0.9 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Trump by 0-0.4 | 0% | −1 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Harris by 0.1-0.5 | 0% | −3 pts | 0 pts | <1¢ · 1¢ (1¢) | — | ended |
| Harris by 1.1-1.5 | 0% | −7 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Harris by 1.6-1.9 | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Harris by 2+ | 0% | −1 pts | 0 pts | — · 1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 798d |  spacebike | Harris by 2+ | SellNo>99¢ | $1,294 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 798d | spacebike | Harris by 1.6-1.9 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,126 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 798d |  ExhaustedBoyBilly | Harris by 0.6-1 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,394 | +$1 +0.1% | 10 |
| 799d | Munners | Trump by 1+ | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,424 | +$5 +0.2% | 10 |
| 799d | MatrixMember | Harris by 0.6-1 | BuyYes47¢ → 100¢ | $1,006 | +$1,134 +113% | 18 |
| 800d | MalikNabers | Harris by 2+ | BuyNo84¢ → 100¢ | $1,630 | +$311 +19% | 13 |
| 801d | J.V. | Trump by 1+ | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,586 | −$14 −0.9% | — |
| 801d | Isaak👴 | Trump by 0-0.4 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,500 | +$15 +1.0% | 10 |
| 801d | J.V. | Trump by 0.5-0.9 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,918 | −$19 −1.0% | — |
| 801d | aviato | Trump by 0-0.4 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,484 | +$17 +1.1% | 10 |
| 804d | jespertjee | Harris by 0.6-1 | BuyNo80¢ → 0¢ | $1,399 | −$1,399 −100% | 11 |
| 804d | gemstone | Harris by 0.1-0.5 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $2,519 | +$133 +5.3% | 10 |
| 805d | J.V. | Trump by 1+ | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,568 | +$32 +2.0% | 10 |
| 805d | J.V. | Trump by 0.5-0.9 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,551 | +$48 +3.1% | 10 |
| 805d | sdiff123 | Harris by 1.6-1.9 | BuyNo83¢ → 100¢ | $1,004 | +$206 +20% | 11 |
Trump vs. Harris RCP polling margin on Aug 16?
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for Harris by 0.6-1 means the market gives it about 100%.