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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boeing Aircraft Purchase | 100% | +61 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Participation in Iran Negotiations | 0% | −1 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| U.S. Soybean Purchase | 0% | −3 pts | −32 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| U.S. Oil Purchase | 0% | −5 pts | −10 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Rare Earth Export Relief | 0% | −1 pts | −12 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 154d | NeoOracle | U.S. Soybean Purchase | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,843 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 155d | livepo1y | U.S. Soybean Purchase | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,091 | +$12 +1.1% | 20 |
| 157d | SomeoneIn2077 | Rare Earth Export Relief | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,283 | +$20 +1.6% | 20 |
| 159d | 0xd269…6b9a | Rare Earth Export Relief | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $10,000 | +$296 +3.0% | 20 |
| 160d | zxc368 | Boeing Aircraft Purchase | BuyYes>99¢ | $12,436 | +$27 +0.2% | 20 |
| 160d | NeoOracle | Boeing Aircraft Purchase | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,985 | +$18 +0.6% | 20 |
| 160d |  x.o | Boeing Aircraft Purchase | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $9,937 | +$63 +0.6% | 20 |
| 160d |  Bromley86 | Boeing Aircraft Purchase | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,757 | −$42 −2.4% | — |
| 160d | lorry31223 fills | Boeing Aircraft Purchase | BuyYes87¢ → 100¢ | $8,259 | +$1,274 +15% | 21 |
| 160d |  tetrase2 fills | Boeing Aircraft Purchase | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $3,423 | +$109 +3.2% | 20 |
| 160d |  EmeraldEdge | Boeing Aircraft Purchase | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $4,053 | +$134 +3.3% | 20 |
| 160d | Spiffy-Hold | Boeing Aircraft Purchase | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,056 | +$28 +2.6% | 20 |
| 160d | Arman2 | Boeing Aircraft Purchase | BuyYes79¢ → 100¢ | $1,383 | +$367 +27% | 21 |
| 160d |  yen4u2 fills | Boeing Aircraft Purchase | BuyYes79¢ → 100¢ | $2,056 | +$538 +26% | 21 |
| 160d | A69420 | Boeing Aircraft Purchase | BuyNo64¢ → 0¢ | $1,709 | −$1,709 −100% | 22 |
| 161d |  Sacha1626 | Rare Earth Export Relief | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $1,043 | +$107 +10% | 21 |
| 161d |  Chikan-Vladislav | Boeing Aircraft Purchase | BuyNo65¢ → 0¢ | $2,496 | −$2,496 −100% | 22 |
| 161d |  Rick-Ross | U.S. Soybean Purchase | BuyNo69¢ → 100¢ | $1,018 | +$455 +45% | 22 |
| 162d | Rick-Ross2 fills | U.S. Oil Purchase | BuyNo83¢ → 100¢ | $3,500 | +$738 +21% | 20 |
| 162d | Rick-Ross | Boeing Aircraft Purchase | BuyNo68¢ → 0¢ | $2,000 | −$2,000 −100% | 22 |
| 162d | Trustinghorse | Participation in Iran Negotiations | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $1,942 | +$196 +10% | 21 |
| 162d |  0x22d479bf00cf48acfeb61c174fdae8d4e530b4 | Boeing Aircraft Purchase | BuyNo30¢ → 0¢ | $1,935 | −$1,935 −100% | 25 |
| 163d | A69420 | Participation in Iran Negotiations | BuyNo85¢ → 100¢ | $1,205 | +$215 +18% | 20 |
Rick-Ross5,773 shares0x22d479bf00cf48acfeb61c174fdae8d4e530b44,911 sharesChikan-Vladislav3,857 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Xi Jinping, the Chinese government, or any authorized representative of the Chinese government announces a reduction, removal, or suspension of any existing tariffs on the United States between market creation and May 22, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only tariff reductions specifically announced in relation to the United States, goods from the United States, or a specific set of countries including the United States will qualify. For example, an announced reduction in global tariffs will not count toward this market's resolution. Tariff reductions, removals, or suspensions announced as part of a mutual agreement or deal between the United States and China will qualify. Only definitive announcements will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify. Any qualifying action announced within this market's time frame will count, regardless of whether or when the tariff reduction, removal, or suspension goes into effect. This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Chinese government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for Boeing Aircraft Purchase means the market gives it about 100%.