Loading your workspacePreparing the page and its market data.
Loading the chart…
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 56–58% | 100% | +2 pts | +78 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <50% | 0% | −1 pts | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 50–52% | 0% | 0 pts | −9 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 52–54% | 0% | — | −9 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 54–56% | 0% | −1 pts | −20 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 58–60% | 0% | −1 pts | −29 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 60%+ | 0% | −1 pts | −13 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 256d |  ggmggn | 56–58% | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,997 | +$3 +0.1% | 10 |
| 256d | wokerjoesleeper | 54–56% | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,005 | +$1 +0.1% | 10 |
| 256d | wokerjoesleeper | <50% | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,005 | +$1 +0.1% | 10 |
| 256d |  khai13 | 56–58% | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,269 | +$8 +0.7% | 10 |
| 257d |  Snoopyfan | 54–56% | BuyNo88¢ → 100¢ | $2,200 | +$289 +13% | 10 |
mbs3367 sharesGeneral elections are scheduled to be held in Japan on February 8, 2026. This market will resolve based on the official voter turnout rate for the single-seat constituency ballot (小選挙区), defined as the total number of ballots cast divided by the total number of eligible voters. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. If the results of the election are not known by November 30, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as reported by the Japanese government, specifically Japan’s Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications (https://www.soumu.go.jp/senkyo/senkyo_s/data/index.html).
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 56–58% means the market gives it about 100%.