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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alatengheili vs. John Castaneda | 100% | +75 pts | +72 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Fight to Go the Distance? | 100% | +30 pts | +50 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| O/U 0.5 Rounds | 100% | +7 pts | +50 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Castaneda to win by KO/TKO? | 0% | −16 pts | −50 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Fight won by submission? | 0% | −12 pts | −50 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| O/U 2.5 Rounds | 100% | +27 pts | +50 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Fight won by KO/TKO? | 0% | −22 pts | −50 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Ends before Round 2? | 0% | −12 pts | −50 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Ends before Round 3? | 0% | −22 pts | −50 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| O/U 1.5 Rounds | 100% | +17 pts | +50 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Castaneda in Round 3 | 0% | −11 pts | −50 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Alatengheili to win by KO/TKO? | 0% | −13 pts | −50 pts | — · 1¢ | — | ended |
| Fight won by decision? | 100% | +31 pts | +50 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Alatengheili in Round 1 | 0% | −10 pts | −50 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Alatengheili in Round 2 | 0% | −10 pts | −50 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Alatengheili in Round 3 | 0% | −10 pts | −50 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Castaneda in Round 1 | 0% | −12 pts | −50 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Castaneda in Round 2 | 0% | −12 pts | −50 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Decision or Draw | 100% | — | — | 81¢ · 100¢ (19¢) | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28d | Madeira99 | Alatengheili vs. John Castaneda | SellAlatengheili>99¢ | $1,038 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 28d | chao9152 | Alatengheili vs. John Castaneda | SellAlatengheili>99¢ | $2,549 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 28d |  csgod | Alatengheili vs. John Castaneda | SellAlatengheili99¢ → 100¢ | $1,097 | −$11 −1.0% | — |
| 28d | olpy | Alatengheili vs. John Castaneda | BuyJohn Castaneda75¢ → 0¢ | $1,311 | −$1,311 −100% | 11 |
| 28d | ferrariChampions2026 | Alatengheili vs. John Castaneda | BuyJohn Castaneda82¢ → 0¢ | $2,403 | −$2,403 −100% | 9 |
| 28d | takeormake | Alatengheili vs. John Castaneda | BuyJohn Castaneda78¢ → 0¢ | $1,194 | −$1,194 −100% | 10 |
| 28d | FKMY | Alatengheili vs. John Castaneda | BuyJohn Castaneda85¢ → 0¢ | $1,262 | −$1,262 −100% | 8 |
| 28d | WhiteMonster7 | Alatengheili vs. John Castaneda | BuyAlatengheili25¢ → 100¢ | $1,663 | +$4,988 +300% | 12 |
| 28d |  matanovik2 fills | Alatengheili vs. John Castaneda | BuyAlatengheili25¢ → 100¢ | $2,820 | +$8,647 +307% | 12 |
| 28d |  elmcap2 | Alatengheili vs. John Castaneda | BuyJohn Castaneda76¢ → 0¢ | $3,319 | −$3,319 −100% | 10 |
| 28d | NeverLoseBet | Alatengheili vs. John Castaneda | BuyAlatengheili23¢ → 100¢ | $1,397 | +$4,675 +335% | 12 |
| 28d | christianox | Alatengheili vs. John Castaneda | BuyJohn Castaneda78¢ → 0¢ | $3,900 | −$3,900 −100% | 10 |
| 28d | rabbitfoot12 fills | Alatengheili vs. John Castaneda | BuyJohn Castaneda78¢ → 0¢ | $14,803 | −$14,803 −100% | 8 |
gangdoo7,327 sharesThis market will resolve to "Alatengheili" if Alatengheili is officially declared the winner of the fight against John Castaneda at UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos, scheduled for September 26, 2026. It will resolve to "John Castaneda" if John Castaneda is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond October 10, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for Alatengheili vs. John Castaneda means the market gives it about 100%.