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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Volkanovski vs. Movsar Evloev | 51% | +1 pts | +1 pts | 50¢ · 51¢ (1¢) | $84.6K | in 22h |
| Decision or Draw | 69% | +6 pts | +19 pts | 65¢ · 72¢ (7¢) | $1.06K | in 22h |
| Fight to Go the Distance? | 68% | −1 pts | −3 pts | 66¢ · 69¢ (3¢) | $114 | in 22h |
| O/U 4.5 Rounds | 71% | — | +21 pts | 70¢ · 72¢ (2¢) | — | in 22h |
| Fight won by KO/TKO? | 23% | −5 pts | −27 pts | 21¢ · 25¢ (4¢) | $29.7 | in 22h |
| Ends before Round 3? | 18% | +2 pts | −33 pts | 16¢ · 19¢ (3¢) | $21.3 | in 22h |
| Evloev to win by KO/TKO? | 12% | −15 pts | −38 pts | 10¢ · 14¢ (4¢) | $15.1 | in 22h |
| Ends before Round 5? | 29% | — | −21 pts | 27¢ · 31¢ (4¢) | $9.53 | in 22h |
| Volkanovski in Round 1 | 7% | −20 pts | −44 pts | 3¢ · 10¢ (7¢) | $9.09 | in 22h |
| Fight won by submission? | 11% | −17 pts | −39 pts | 7¢ · 15¢ (8¢) | $6.25 | in 22h |
| Volkanovski to win by KO/TKO? | 15% | −16 pts | −35 pts | 12¢ · 18¢ (6¢) | — | in 22h |
| O/U 0.5 Rounds | 93% | — | +43 pts | 90¢ · 96¢ (6¢) | — | in 22h |
| O/U 1.5 Rounds | 87% | +13 pts | +37 pts | 82¢ · 92¢ (10¢) | — | in 22h |
| O/U 2.5 Rounds | 81% | +11 pts | +31 pts | 76¢ · 85¢ (9¢) | — | in 22h |
| O/U 3.5 Rounds | 74% | +7 pts | +24 pts | 69¢ · 79¢ (10¢) | — | in 22h |
| Fight won by decision? | 67% | +6 pts | +14 pts | 62¢ · 72¢ (10¢) | — | in 22h |
| Ends before Round 2? | 9% | — | −42 pts | 6¢ · 11¢ (5¢) | — | in 22h |
| Ends before Round 4? | 23% | — | −27 pts | 21¢ · 25¢ (4¢) | — | in 22h |
| Volkanovski in Round 2 | 6% | −21 pts | −44 pts | 3¢ · 9¢ (6¢) | — | in 22h |
| Volkanovski in Round 3 | 6% | −21 pts | −45 pts | 3¢ · 8¢ (5¢) | — | in 22h |
| Volkanovski in Round 4 | 6% | −21 pts | −45 pts | 3¢ · 8¢ (5¢) | — | in 22h |
| Volkanovski in Round 5 | 5% | −22 pts | −45 pts | 3¢ · 7¢ (4¢) | — | in 22h |
| Evloev in Round 1 | 6% | −21 pts | −44 pts | 3¢ · 9¢ (6¢) | — | in 22h |
| Evloev in Round 2 | 6% | −21 pts | −45 pts | 3¢ · 8¢ (5¢) | — | in 22h |
| Evloev in Round 3 | 6% | −21 pts | −45 pts | 3¢ · 8¢ (5¢) | — | in 22h |
| Evloev in Round 4 | 5% | −22 pts | −45 pts | 3¢ · 7¢ (4¢) | — | in 22h |
| Evloev in Round 5 | 5% | −22 pts | −45 pts | 3¢ · 7¢ (4¢) | — | in 22h |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2h |  digitalnomad85 | Alexander Volkanovski vs. Movsar Evloev | BuyMovsar Evloev50¢ | $1,000 | −$10 −1.0% | 10 |
| 3h |  esportsbetter12 fills | Alexander Volkanovski vs. Movsar Evloev | BuyAlexander Volkanovski51¢ | $11,293 | −$9 −0.1% | 20 |
| 4h | Nickvaisberg | Alexander Volkanovski vs. Movsar Evloev | BuyMovsar Evloev50¢ | $1,938 | −$19 −1.0% | 11 |
| 5h | chiefphi | Alexander Volkanovski vs. Movsar Evloev | BuyMovsar Evloev50¢ | $1,000 | −$10 −1.0% | 10 |
| 8h | acorp | Alexander Volkanovski vs. Movsar Evloev | BuyMovsar Evloev50¢ | $3,196 | −$32 −1.0% | 12 |
| 11h |  TrentaColdBrew | Alexander Volkanovski vs. Movsar Evloev | BuyMovsar Evloev51¢ → 50¢ | $1,020 | −$30 −2.9% | 10 |
| 13h | RdogTest3 fills | Alexander Volkanovski vs. Movsar Evloev | BuyAlexander Volkanovski50¢ → 51¢ | $3,158 | +$32 +1.0% | 12 |
| 19h | Colorless-Spotlight2 fills | Alexander Volkanovski vs. Movsar Evloev | BuyAlexander Volkanovski50¢ → 51¢ | $8,264 | +$83 +1.0% | 17 |
| 1d | Jaded-Consulting | Alexander Volkanovski vs. Movsar Evloev | BuyMovsar Evloev51¢ → 50¢ | $3,000 | −$88 −2.9% | 12 |
| 1d | humpav | Alexander Volkanovski vs. Movsar Evloev | BuyMovsar Evloev51¢ → 50¢ | $1,153 | −$34 −2.9% | 10 |
| 1d |  noosh3 | Alexander Volkanovski vs. Movsar Evloev | BuyAlexander Volkanovski50¢ → 51¢ | $1,050 | +$11 +1.0% | 10 |
| 1d | Cheap-Founder-Pin | Alexander Volkanovski vs. Movsar Evloev | BuyAlexander Volkanovski50¢ → 51¢ | $1,050 | +$11 +1.0% | 10 |
| 1d |  timebrotime2 fills | Alexander Volkanovski vs. Movsar Evloev | BuyMovsar Evloev51¢ → 50¢ | $9,600 | −$282 −2.9% | 15 |
| 2d | morpheus23 | Alexander Volkanovski vs. Movsar Evloev | BuyAlexander Volkanovski50¢ → 51¢ | $1,545 | +$15 +1.0% | 7 |
| 3d | 0x4948…c785 | Alexander Volkanovski vs. Movsar Evloev | BuyMovsar Evloev51¢ → 50¢ | $1,500 | −$44 −2.9% | 7 |
| 3d | jomantsago | Alexander Volkanovski vs. Movsar Evloev | BuyAlexander Volkanovski50¢ → 51¢ | $1,100 | +$11 +1.0% | 7 |
| 3d |  Ogbum | Alexander Volkanovski vs. Movsar Evloev | BuyAlexander Volkanovski50¢ → 51¢ | $1,429 | +$14 +1.0% | 7 |
| 4d | -------- | Alexander Volkanovski vs. Movsar Evloev | BuyAlexander Volkanovski50¢ → 51¢ | $1,000 | +$10 +1.0% | 7 |
| 4d | Ilya0023 | Alexander Volkanovski vs. Movsar Evloev | BuyMovsar Evloev51¢ → 50¢ | $1,526 | −$45 −2.9% | 7 |
| 5d | JAMJAMJAM4 | Alexander Volkanovski vs. Movsar Evloev | BuyAlexander Volkanovski50¢ → 51¢ | $2,000 | +$20 +1.0% | 8 |
| 10d | fractional | Alexander Volkanovski vs. Movsar Evloev | BuyMovsar Evloev52¢ → 50¢ | $1,144 | −$55 −4.8% | 5 |
esportsbetter130,013 sharestimebrotime19,216 sharesTrentaColdBrew8,000 sharesThis market will resolve to "Alexander Volkanovski" if Alexander Volkanovski is officially declared the winner of the fight against Movsar Evloev at UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev, scheduled for October 24, 2026. It will resolve to "Movsar Evloev" if Movsar Evloev is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond November 7, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 51¢ for Alexander Volkanovski vs. Movsar Evloev means the market gives it about 51%.