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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grant Dawson vs. Nurullo Aliev | >99% | +49 pts | +49 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | $782K | in 10h |
| Fight to Go the Distance? | 51% | −12 pts | +13 pts | 1¢ · 100¢ (99¢) | $7.54K | in 10h |
| Fight won by KO/TKO? | 3% | −37 pts | −47 pts | <1¢ · 6¢ (6¢) | $4.95K | in 10h |
| O/U 2.5 Rounds | 64% | −3 pts | +14 pts | 27¢ · 100¢ (73¢) | $2.34K | in 10h |
| Decision or Draw | 96% | +30 pts | +13 pts | 92¢ · 100¢ (8¢) | $356 | in 10h |
| Ends before Round 2? | 50% | +35 pts | −35 pts | — · 100¢ | $250 | in 10h |
| Dawson in Round 3 | 45% | +37 pts | −43 pts | — · 91¢ | $184 | in 10h |
| Dawson in Round 2 | 3% | −6 pts | −43 pts | — · 5¢ | $170 | in 10h |
| Dawson to win by KO/TKO? | 2% | −25 pts | −48 pts | — · 4¢ | $166 | in 10h |
| Fight won by submission? | 3% | −14 pts | −48 pts | — · 5¢ | $149 | in 10h |
| Dawson in Round 1 | 50% | +42 pts | −42 pts | — · 100¢ | $83.3 | in 10h |
| O/U 0.5 Rounds | 100% | +9 pts | +50 pts | 99¢ · 100¢ (1¢) | $56 | in 10h |
| Aliev to win by KO/TKO? | 2% | −27 pts | −48 pts | — · 4¢ | $52.6 | in 10h |
| Ends before Round 3? | 50% | +23 pts | −23 pts | — · 100¢ | — | in 10h |
| Aliev in Round 2 | 50% | +13 pts | −44 pts | — · 100¢ | $10 | in 10h |
| Aliev in Round 3 | 50% | +44 pts | −44 pts | — · 100¢ | $10 | in 10h |
| Aliev in Round 1 | 50% | +40 pts | −41 pts | — · 100¢ | — | in 10h |
| O/U 1.5 Rounds | >99% | +25 pts | +29 pts | 99¢ · 100¢ (1¢) | — | in 10h |
| Fight won by decision? | 50% | −5 pts | +11 pts | — · 100¢ | — | in 10h |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9m | WYNNERBACC | Grant Dawson vs. Nurullo Aliev | SellGrant Dawson>99¢ | $1,499 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 54m |  Mr.Kirk | Grant Dawson vs. Nurullo Aliev | SellGrant Dawson>99¢ | $1,086 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 1h | UFCDude | Grant Dawson vs. Nurullo Aliev | SellGrant Dawson>99¢ | $1,019 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 1h | makizinchers | Grant Dawson vs. Nurullo Aliev | SellGrant Dawson>99¢ | $1,140 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 1h | 0x1507…e175 | Grant Dawson vs. Nurullo Aliev | SellGrant Dawson>99¢ | $3,119 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 1h | Vanaske | Grant Dawson vs. Nurullo Aliev | SellGrant Dawson>99¢ | $1,332 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 1h | bigonze | Grant Dawson vs. Nurullo Aliev | SellGrant Dawson>99¢ | $1,312 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 1h | UFCDude | Grant Dawson vs. Nurullo Aliev | BuyGrant Dawson>99¢ | $1,019 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 1h | ferrariChampions2026 | Grant Dawson vs. Nurullo Aliev | BuyGrant Dawson90¢ → >99¢ | $1,397 | +$146 +10% | 7 |
| 1h | Substantial-Service | Grant Dawson vs. Nurullo Aliev | BuyGrant Dawson90¢ → >99¢ | $2,494 | +$275 +11% | 7 |
| 1h |  4751346 | Grant Dawson vs. Nurullo Aliev | BuyGrant Dawson94¢ → >99¢ | $1,256 | +$79 +6.3% | 6 |
| 1h | aids2000lxr | Grant Dawson vs. Nurullo Aliev | BuyGrant Dawson88¢ → >99¢ | $1,500 | +$204 +14% | 7 |
| 1h | GEAEW | Grant Dawson vs. Nurullo Aliev | BuyGrant Dawson87¢ → >99¢ | $2,557 | +$381 +15% | 8 |
| 1h | 01258787xy4848748454512211 fills | Grant Dawson vs. Nurullo Aliev | BuyGrant Dawson86¢ → >99¢ | $27,288 | +$4,548 +17% | 9 |
| 1h |  cat3xcat3x | Grant Dawson vs. Nurullo Aliev | BuyGrant Dawson83¢ → >99¢ | $3,100 | +$633 +20% | 9 |
| 1h | sts22 | Grant Dawson vs. Nurullo Aliev | BuyGrant Dawson36¢ → >99¢ | $1,206 | +$2,107 +175% | 12 |
| 1h |  thebluegem | Grant Dawson vs. Nurullo Aliev | BuyNurullo Aliev99¢ → <1¢ | $1,192 | −$1,192 −100% | 4 |
| 1h |  0x5fD2D9C60781D711721145Ff2b906aA63a18 | Grant Dawson vs. Nurullo Aliev | SellNurullo Aliev99¢ → <1¢ | $1,349 | +$1,348 +100% | — |
| 1h |  gys-bot2 fills | Grant Dawson vs. Nurullo Aliev | BuyNurullo Aliev94¢ → <1¢ | $3,282 | −$3,280 −100% | 6 |
| 1h | 0x5fD2D9C60781D711721145Ff2b906aA63a18 | Grant Dawson vs. Nurullo Aliev | BuyNurullo Aliev87¢ → <1¢ | $1,041 | −$1,040 −100% | 8 |
| 1h | cat3xcat3x | Grant Dawson vs. Nurullo Aliev | BuyNurullo Aliev77¢ → <1¢ | $2,100 | −$2,099 −100% | 10 |
| 1h | FKMY | Grant Dawson vs. Nurullo Aliev | BuyNurullo Aliev66¢ → <1¢ | $1,730 | −$1,729 −100% | 12 |
| 1h | Sassy-Bucket7 fills | Grant Dawson vs. Nurullo Aliev | BuyGrant Dawson51¢ → >99¢ | $151,773 | +$148K +98% | 28 |
| 1h | masterkopeek2 fills | Grant Dawson vs. Nurullo Aliev | BuyNurullo Aliev50¢ → <1¢ | $2,600 | −$2,597 −100% | 12 |
| 1h |  hanbetscap2 fills | Grant Dawson vs. Nurullo Aliev | BuyNurullo Aliev50¢ → <1¢ | $2,000 | −$1,998 −100% | 12 |
| 1h | byakugan080 | Grant Dawson vs. Nurullo Aliev | SellNurullo Aliev49¢ → <1¢ | $1,098 | +$1,097 +100% | — |
| 1h |  billy578 | Grant Dawson vs. Nurullo Aliev | BuyNurullo Aliev50¢ → <1¢ | $1,900 | −$1,898 −100% | 12 |
| 1h | blahblah123123 | Fight won by KO/TKO? | BuyYes34¢ → 3¢ | $1,551 | −$1,413 −91% | 32 |
| 1h | Favorable-Pepper-Brushing | Grant Dawson vs. Nurullo Aliev | BuyNurullo Aliev51¢ → <1¢ | $1,429 | −$1,427 −100% | 12 |
| 1h | omnibus-076daa | Grant Dawson vs. Nurullo Aliev | BuyNurullo Aliev50¢ → <1¢ | $1,097 | −$1,096 −100% | 12 |
| 1h | Bite-Sized-Strawberry | Grant Dawson vs. Nurullo Aliev | BuyNurullo Aliev50¢ → <1¢ | $2,413 | −$2,410 −100% | 12 |
| 1h |  Nooserac2 fills | Grant Dawson vs. Nurullo Aliev | BuyNurullo Aliev50¢ → <1¢ | $15,000 | −$14,985 −100% | 14 |
| 1h | byakugan080 | Grant Dawson vs. Nurullo Aliev | BuyNurullo Aliev50¢ → <1¢ | $1,000 | −$999 −100% | 12 |
| 1h | 0xNuttawut | Grant Dawson vs. Nurullo Aliev | BuyNurullo Aliev50¢ → <1¢ | $1,871 | −$1,869 −100% | 12 |
| 1h |  suzmie | Grant Dawson vs. Nurullo Aliev | BuyNurullo Aliev50¢ → <1¢ | $5,175 | −$5,170 −100% | 13 |
| 1h | analdesutructor | Grant Dawson vs. Nurullo Aliev | BuyNurullo Aliev50¢ → <1¢ | $1,139 | −$1,137 −100% | 12 |
| 2h | NeverLoseBet | Grant Dawson vs. Nurullo Aliev | BuyNurullo Aliev50¢ → <1¢ | $8,073 | −$8,065 −100% | 13 |
| 2h | PollyPepperoni | Grant Dawson vs. Nurullo Aliev | BuyNurullo Aliev50¢ → <1¢ | $20,000 | −$19,980 −100% | 14 |
| 2h | jebashuvkashu | Grant Dawson vs. Nurullo Aliev | BuyNurullo Aliev50¢ → <1¢ | $1,967 | −$1,965 −100% | 12 |
| 2h |  VeryLucky8883 fills | Grant Dawson vs. Nurullo Aliev | SellGrant Dawson50¢ → >99¢ | $3,000 | −$2,997 −100% | — |
| 2h | Gold.Mansacks | Grant Dawson vs. Nurullo Aliev | BuyGrant Dawson51¢ → >99¢ | $1,020 | +$979 +96% | 12 |
| 4h | flexfit | Grant Dawson vs. Nurullo Aliev | BuyNurullo Aliev50¢ → <1¢ | $5,000 | −$4,995 −100% | 13 |
| 14h |  digitalnomad85 | Grant Dawson vs. Nurullo Aliev | BuyNurullo Aliev50¢ → <1¢ | $1,000 | −$999 −100% | 9 |
| 18h | geraldo777 | Grant Dawson vs. Nurullo Aliev | BuyNurullo Aliev50¢ → <1¢ | $1,000 | −$999 −100% | 9 |
| 1d |  FeedTheBigBird | Grant Dawson vs. Nurullo Aliev | BuyNurullo Aliev49¢ → <1¢ | $14,074 | −$14,060 −100% | 10 |
| 1d | omnibus-076daa | Grant Dawson vs. Nurullo Aliev | BuyGrant Dawson52¢ → >99¢ | $2,584 | +$2,383 +92% | 9 |
| 3d | clownfishbets | Grant Dawson vs. Nurullo Aliev | BuyGrant Dawson53¢ → >99¢ | $1,160 | +$1,028 +89% | 6 |
esportsbetter133,719 shares
matanovik50,032 sharesNooserac40,000 sharesFeedTheBigBird30,964 sharesthebluegem25,000 sharesThis market will resolve to "Grant Dawson" if Grant Dawson is officially declared the winner of the fight against Nurullo Aliev at UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev, scheduled for October 24, 2026. It will resolve to "Nurullo Aliev" if Nurullo Aliev is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond November 7, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: >99¢ for Grant Dawson vs. Nurullo Aliev means the market gives it about >99%.