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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melissa Gatto vs. Ernesta Kareckaite | 50% | −2 pts | −7 pts | 50¢ · 51¢ (1¢) | — | ended |
| Fight to Go the Distance? | 100% | +26 pts | +50 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| O/U 2.5 Rounds | 100% | +25 pts | +50 pts | 99¢ · 100¢ (1¢) | — | ended |
| Fight won by decision? | 0% | −5 pts | −50 pts | — · 1¢ | — | ended |
| Fight won by submission? | 0% | −26 pts | −50 pts | — · 1¢ | — | ended |
| Gatto to win by KO/TKO? | 0% | −25 pts | −50 pts | — · 1¢ | — | ended |
| Ends before Round 3? | 0% | −18 pts | −50 pts | — · 1¢ | — | ended |
| Fight won by KO/TKO? | 0% | −30 pts | −50 pts | — · 1¢ | — | ended |
| Decision or Draw | 100% | +34 pts | +48 pts | 95¢ · 100¢ (5¢) | — | ended |
| O/U 0.5 Rounds | 100% | +16 pts | +50 pts | 99¢ · 100¢ (1¢) | — | ended |
| Gatto in Round 1 | 0% | −24 pts | −48 pts | — · 5¢ | — | ended |
| Kareckaite to win by KO/TKO? | 0% | −27 pts | −50 pts | — · 1¢ | — | ended |
| O/U 1.5 Rounds | 100% | +20 pts | +50 pts | 99¢ · 100¢ (1¢) | — | ended |
| Ends before Round 2? | 0% | +38 pts | −3 pts | — · 95¢ | — | ended |
| Gatto in Round 2 | 0% | +21 pts | −3 pts | — · 95¢ | — | ended |
| Gatto in Round 3 | 0% | +22 pts | −3 pts | — · 95¢ | — | ended |
| Kareckaite in Round 1 | 0% | −24 pts | −48 pts | — · 5¢ | — | ended |
| Kareckaite in Round 2 | 0% | +21 pts | −3 pts | — · 95¢ | — | ended |
| Kareckaite in Round 3 | 0% | +21 pts | −3 pts | — · 95¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13d | Wordy-Littleneck | Melissa Gatto vs. Ernesta Kareckaite | SellMelissa Gatto50¢ | $21,354 | $0 0.0% | — |
| 13d | Jkaem007 | Melissa Gatto vs. Ernesta Kareckaite | SellMelissa Gatto50¢ | $1,364 | $0 0.0% | — |
| 13d | zzqq35 | Melissa Gatto vs. Ernesta Kareckaite | SellErnesta Kareckaite49¢ → 50¢ | $1,054 | −$22 −2.0% | — |
| 13d | 0xNuttawut | Melissa Gatto vs. Ernesta Kareckaite | SellErnesta Kareckaite49¢ → 50¢ | $2,940 | −$60 −2.0% | — |
| 13d | Excentrico | Melissa Gatto vs. Ernesta Kareckaite | SellErnesta Kareckaite49¢ → 50¢ | $1,100 | −$22 −2.0% | — |
| 13d | friginirick | Melissa Gatto vs. Ernesta Kareckaite | SellErnesta Kareckaite49¢ → 50¢ | $2,433 | −$50 −2.0% | — |
| 13d | pereira122 fills | Melissa Gatto vs. Ernesta Kareckaite | BuyMelissa Gatto75¢ → 50¢ | $8,135 | −$2,731 −34% | 11 |
| 13d | ferrariChampions20262 fills | Melissa Gatto vs. Ernesta Kareckaite | BuyErnesta Kareckaite32¢ → 50¢ | $4,031 | +$2,343 +58% | 12 |
| 13d | omnibus-076daa4 fills | Melissa Gatto vs. Ernesta Kareckaite | BuyMelissa Gatto74¢ → 50¢ | $7,881 | −$2,573 −33% | 11 |
| 13d | dips. | Melissa Gatto vs. Ernesta Kareckaite | BuyMelissa Gatto77¢ → 50¢ | $1,149 | −$403 −35% | 10 |
| 13d | curie2 fills | Melissa Gatto vs. Ernesta Kareckaite | BuyMelissa Gatto73¢ → 50¢ | $4,712 | −$1,469 −31% | 11 |
| 13d | Substantial-Service2 fills | Melissa Gatto vs. Ernesta Kareckaite | BuyErnesta Kareckaite38¢ → 50¢ | $7,697 | +$2,463 +32% | 12 |
| 13d | Nemoto | Melissa Gatto vs. Ernesta Kareckaite | BuyMelissa Gatto53¢ → 50¢ | $1,167 | −$66 −5.7% | 12 |
| 13d | RaulRosasJr | Melissa Gatto vs. Ernesta Kareckaite | BuyMelissa Gatto50¢ | $3,303 | $0 0.0% | 12 |
| 13d | Substantial-Service | Melissa Gatto vs. Ernesta Kareckaite | BuyMelissa Gatto23¢ → 50¢ | $1,587 | +$1,863 +117% | 12 |
| 13d | sts22 | Melissa Gatto vs. Ernesta Kareckaite | SellErnesta Kareckaite77¢ → 50¢ | $8,086 | +$2,835 +35% | — |
| 13d | FKMY2 fills | Melissa Gatto vs. Ernesta Kareckaite | BuyErnesta Kareckaite52¢ → 50¢ | $2,448 | −$92 −3.7% | 12 |
| 13d | ferrariChampions20264 fills | Melissa Gatto vs. Ernesta Kareckaite | BuyMelissa Gatto53¢ → 50¢ | $14,283 | −$832 −5.8% | 12 |
| 13d | GEAEW2 fills | Melissa Gatto vs. Ernesta Kareckaite | BuyErnesta Kareckaite48¢ → 50¢ | $7,735 | +$290 +3.7% | 12 |
| 13d | Alreadybetter | Melissa Gatto vs. Ernesta Kareckaite | BuyMelissa Gatto53¢ → 50¢ | $1,738 | −$98 −5.6% | 12 |
| 13d | Jkaem007 | Melissa Gatto vs. Ernesta Kareckaite | BuyMelissa Gatto55¢ → 50¢ | $1,500 | −$136 −9.1% | 12 |
| 13d | Sassy-Bucket6 fills | Melissa Gatto vs. Ernesta Kareckaite | BuyMelissa Gatto54¢ → 50¢ | $205,367 | −$14,813 −7.2% | 12 |
| 13d | Wordy-Littleneck | Melissa Gatto vs. Ernesta Kareckaite | BuyMelissa Gatto54¢ → 50¢ | $8,749 | −$648 −7.4% | 12 |
| 13d | 0xNuttawut | Melissa Gatto vs. Ernesta Kareckaite | BuyErnesta Kareckaite47¢ → 50¢ | $1,880 | +$120 +6.4% | 12 |
| 13d | madkkee | Melissa Gatto vs. Ernesta Kareckaite | BuyErnesta Kareckaite47¢ → 50¢ | $3,333 | +$213 +6.4% | 12 |
| 13d |  Flipadelphia | Melissa Gatto vs. Ernesta Kareckaite | BuyMelissa Gatto54¢ → 50¢ | $5,400 | −$400 −7.4% | 12 |
| 13d | isp | Melissa Gatto vs. Ernesta Kareckaite | BuyMelissa Gatto53¢ → 50¢ | $4,240 | −$240 −5.7% | 12 |
| 13d | gangmusic | Melissa Gatto vs. Ernesta Kareckaite | BuyMelissa Gatto53¢ → 50¢ | $4,770 | −$270 −5.7% | 12 |
| 14d | Elaran1993 | Melissa Gatto vs. Ernesta Kareckaite | BuyMelissa Gatto52¢ → 50¢ | $5,371 | −$207 −3.8% | 9 |
| 14d | omnibus-076daa | Melissa Gatto vs. Ernesta Kareckaite | BuyErnesta Kareckaite50¢ | $5,454 | $0 0.0% | 9 |
This market will resolve to "Melissa Gatto" if Melissa Gatto is officially declared the winner of the fight against Ernesta Kareckaite at UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan, scheduled for October 10, 2026. It will resolve to "Ernesta Kareckaite" if Ernesta Kareckaite is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond October 24, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 50¢ for Melissa Gatto vs. Ernesta Kareckaite means the market gives it about 50%.