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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan | 42% | — | +3 pts | 41¢ · 42¢ (1¢) | $159K | in 20h |
| Yan to win by KO/TKO? | 23% | — | −28 pts | 21¢ · 24¢ (3¢) | $1.15K | in 20h |
| Decision or Draw | 71% | +9 pts | +21 pts | 68¢ · 74¢ (6¢) | $1.05K | in 20h |
| Dvalishvili to win by KO/TKO? | 8% | −20 pts | −43 pts | 4¢ · 11¢ (7¢) | $673 | in 20h |
| O/U 4.5 Rounds | 73% | +1 pts | +23 pts | 72¢ · 73¢ (1¢) | — | in 20h |
| Fight to Go the Distance? | 70% | — | +20 pts | 68¢ · 71¢ (3¢) | $110 | in 20h |
| Ends before Round 2? | 9% | — | −42 pts | 7¢ · 10¢ (3¢) | — | in 20h |
| Ends before Round 5? | 25% | +2 pts | −26 pts | 23¢ · 26¢ (3¢) | $43.5 | in 20h |
| Fight won by submission? | 7% | −8 pts | −44 pts | 3¢ · 10¢ (7¢) | $31 | in 20h |
| Yan in Round 4 | 6% | −21 pts | −44 pts | 3¢ · 9¢ (6¢) | $10 | in 20h |
| Fight won by KO/TKO? | 25% | −2 pts | −25 pts | 21¢ · 28¢ (7¢) | $9.95 | in 20h |
| O/U 2.5 Rounds | 84% | +12 pts | +34 pts | 82¢ · 86¢ (4¢) | $8.7 | in 20h |
| Fight won by decision? | 70% | +7 pts | +20 pts | 65¢ · 74¢ (9¢) | — | in 20h |
| O/U 0.5 Rounds | 94% | +2 pts | +2 pts | 91¢ · 97¢ (6¢) | — | in 20h |
| O/U 1.5 Rounds | 90% | −1 pts | −1 pts | 87¢ · 92¢ (5¢) | — | in 20h |
| O/U 3.5 Rounds | 78% | +10 pts | +28 pts | 76¢ · 80¢ (4¢) | — | in 20h |
| Ends before Round 3? | 13% | +1 pts | −37 pts | 12¢ · 14¢ (2¢) | — | in 20h |
| Ends before Round 4? | 18% | +1 pts | −32 pts | 17¢ · 19¢ (2¢) | — | in 20h |
| Dvalishvili in Round 1 | 5% | −22 pts | −45 pts | 3¢ · 7¢ (4¢) | — | in 20h |
| Dvalishvili in Round 2 | 5% | −22 pts | −46 pts | 3¢ · 6¢ (3¢) | — | in 20h |
| Dvalishvili in Round 3 | 5% | −22 pts | −46 pts | 3¢ · 6¢ (3¢) | — | in 20h |
| Dvalishvili in Round 4 | 5% | −22 pts | −45 pts | 3¢ · 7¢ (4¢) | — | in 20h |
| Dvalishvili in Round 5 | 5% | −22 pts | −46 pts | 3¢ · 6¢ (3¢) | — | in 20h |
| Yan in Round 1 | 8% | −19 pts | −42 pts | 4¢ · 12¢ (8¢) | — | in 20h |
| Yan in Round 2 | 6% | −21 pts | −44 pts | 3¢ · 8¢ (5¢) | — | in 20h |
| Yan in Round 3 | 6% | −21 pts | −44 pts | 3¢ · 9¢ (6¢) | — | in 20h |
| Yan in Round 5 | 5% | −22 pts | −45 pts | 3¢ · 7¢ (4¢) | — | in 20h |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2h | acorp | Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan | BuyPetr Yan58¢ → 59¢ | $2,808 | +$24 +0.9% | 13 |
| 12h |  nigiri9936 fills | Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan | BuyMerab Dvalishvili42¢ | $37,800 | −$450 −1.2% | 28 |
| 13h |  hanbetscap | Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan | BuyPetr Yan59¢ | $7,080 | −$60 −0.8% | 13 |
| 20h |  Okayed | Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan | SellPetr Yan58¢ → 59¢ | $3,608 | −$31 −0.9% | — |
| 20h |  mewmew1 | Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan | BuyPetr Yan59¢ | $1,205 | −$10 −0.8% | 10 |
| 23h | Nicocorico | Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan | BuyMerab Dvalishvili42¢ | $1,956 | −$23 −1.2% | 10 |
| 1d | Colorless-Spotlight | Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan | SellMerab Dvalishvili41¢ → 42¢ | $7,382 | −$90 −1.2% | — |
| 1d |  usurper55 | Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan | BuyPetr Yan59¢ | $1,565 | −$13 −0.8% | 10 |
| 1d | rohitkrr | Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan | BuyPetr Yan59¢ | $14,768 | −$125 −0.8% | 16 |
| 1d | BITOK | Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan | BuyPetr Yan59¢ | $2,419 | −$21 −0.8% | 10 |
| 1d | morpheus23 | Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan | BuyPetr Yan59¢ | $4,307 | −$37 −0.8% | 11 |
| 1d | Okayed2 fills | Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan | BuyPetr Yan59¢ | $7,326 | −$62 −0.8% | 13 |
| 2d | enjoyablestench2 fills | Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan | BuyPetr Yan60¢ → 59¢ | $3,000 | −$76 −2.5% | 6 |
| 2d | JAMJAMJAM4 | Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan | BuyPetr Yan59¢ | $2,360 | −$20 −0.8% | 7 |
| 2d | enjoyablestench | Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan | SellPetr Yan58¢ → 59¢ | $1,799 | −$16 −0.9% | — |
| 2d |  FvckMachine | Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan | BuyPetr Yan60¢ → 59¢ | $1,933 | −$48 −2.5% | 7 |
| 3d | 0cen5 fills | Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan | BuyMerab Dvalishvili41¢ → 42¢ | $18,536 | +$63 +0.3% | 13 |
| 4d | Blakeforwin2 fills | Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan | BuyPetr Yan60¢ → 59¢ | $3,859 | −$118 −3.1% | 8 |
| 5d | Colorless-Spotlight | Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan | BuyMerab Dvalishvili41¢ → 42¢ | $6,282 | +$108 +1.7% | 9 |
| 5d | omnibus-076daa | Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan | BuyMerab Dvalishvili40¢ → 42¢ | $1,809 | +$68 +3.7% | 7 |
| 5d | brokemaxdegen | Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan | BuyPetr Yan60¢ → 59¢ | $1,599 | −$40 −2.5% | 7 |
nigiri9994,873 shares
VeryLucky88810,500 shares
futureperfect7,310 shares
esportsbetter143,110 shareshanbetscap13,500 sharesThis market will resolve to "Merab Dvalishvili" if Merab Dvalishvili is officially declared the winner of the fight against Petr Yan at UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev, scheduled for October 24, 2026. It will resolve to "Petr Yan" if Petr Yan is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond November 7, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 42¢ for Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan means the market gives it about 42%.