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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnson vs. Hernandez | 50% | — | +9 pts | 49¢ · 50¢ (1¢) | — | ended |
| O/U 2.5 Rounds | 50% | — | −4 pts | 50¢ · 69¢ (19¢) | — | ended |
| O/U 1.5 Rounds | 50% | — | −5 pts | 50¢ · 70¢ (20¢) | — | ended |
| O/U 0.5 Rounds | 50% | — | −24 pts | 50¢ · 70¢ (20¢) | — | ended |
| Hernandez win by KO/TKO? | 50% | −1 pts | +18 pts | 49¢ · 50¢ (1¢) | — | ended |
| Fight to Go the Distance? | 50% | — | +3 pts | 49¢ · 51¢ (2¢) | — | ended |
| Fight won by submission? | 50% | — | +33 pts | 49¢ · 51¢ (2¢) | — | ended |
| Fight won by KO/TKO? | 50% | — | +6 pts | 49¢ · 51¢ (2¢) | — | ended |
| Johnson win by KO/TKO? | 50% | — | +31 pts | 49¢ · 51¢ (2¢) | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 270d | 55779911 | Johnson vs. Hernandez | SellHernandez50¢ | $1,150 | $0 0.0% | — |
| 271d | BoggsFromShawshank | Johnson vs. Hernandez | SellHernandez50¢ | $4,455 | $0 0.0% | — |
| 271d | Dingwin | Johnson vs. Hernandez | BuyJohnson50¢ | $1,500 | $0 0.0% | 4 |
| 272d | Satoru-Gojo | Johnson vs. Hernandez | SellHernandez50¢ | $1,000 | $0 0.0% | — |
| 272d | Obilic | Johnson vs. Hernandez | SellHernandez50¢ | $1,000 | $0 0.0% | — |
| 272d | Harmful-Wood | Johnson vs. Hernandez | SellJohnson49¢ → 50¢ | $6,263 | −$128 −2.0% | — |
| 272d | BoggsFromShawshank | Johnson vs. Hernandez | BuyHernandez50¢ | $4,455 | $0 0.0% | 12 |
| 272d | third-eye | Johnson vs. Hernandez | SellHernandez52¢ → 50¢ | $1,728 | +$66 +3.8% | — |
| 273d | hgfdfghdds32 fills | Johnson vs. Hernandez | BuyJohnson48¢ → 50¢ | $3,600 | +$150 +4.2% | 12 |
| 273d | jnhnhsxx32 | Johnson vs. Hernandez | BuyJohnson48¢ → 50¢ | $1,440 | +$60 +4.2% | 12 |
| 273d | hfgfd3gg | Johnson vs. Hernandez | BuyJohnson48¢ → 50¢ | $1,440 | +$60 +4.2% | 12 |
| 273d |  ComingBack | Johnson vs. Hernandez | BuyHernandez53¢ → 50¢ | $1,111 | −$63 −5.7% | 9 |
| 273d |  statwC00KS | Johnson vs. Hernandez | BuyJohnson49¢ → 50¢ | $1,319 | +$27 +2.0% | 9 |
| 273d | technician2 | Johnson vs. Hernandez | BuyHernandez54¢ → 50¢ | $2,160 | −$160 −7.4% | 9 |
| 273d |  565s8d8g89I98fd99ww2 | Johnson vs. Hernandez | BuyJohnson45¢ → 50¢ | $2,119 | +$235 +11% | 9 |
| 274d | AgriasOaks4 fills | Johnson vs. Hernandez | BuyJohnson40¢ → 50¢ | $15,146 | +$3,639 +24% | 6 |
| 274d | third-eye | Johnson vs. Hernandez | BuyHernandez62¢ → 50¢ | $3,119 | −$619 −20% | 9 |
| 275d | 4qfrankie | Johnson vs. Hernandez | BuyJohnson40¢ → 50¢ | $2,100 | +$525 +25% | 6 |
| 275d | Harmful-Wood | Johnson vs. Hernandez | BuyJohnson40¢ → 50¢ | $5,113 | +$1,278 +25% | 9 |
This market will resolve to "Johnson" if Michael Johnson is officially declared the winner of the fight against Alexander Hernandez at UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett, scheduled for January 24, 2026. It will resolve to "Hernandez" if Alexander Hernandez is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond February 7, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 50¢ for Johnson vs. Hernandez means the market gives it about 50%.