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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 100% | +63 pts | +61 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 525d |  HNIC2 fills | US debt downgrade in 2025? | BuyYes85¢ → 100¢ | $4,885 | +$868 +18% | 4 |
| 525d |  Axios | US debt downgrade in 2025? | BuyYes39¢ → 100¢ | $1,511 | +$2,408 +159% | 5 |
| 538d | Rilith | US debt downgrade in 2025? | SellYes40¢ → 100¢ | $11,241 | −$16,861 −150% | — |
| 538d | Rilith | US debt downgrade in 2025? | BuyYes41¢ → 100¢ | $11,523 | +$16,581 +144% | 8 |
| 557d | Bloombergg | US debt downgrade in 2025? | BuyNo64¢ → 0¢ | $1,000 | −$1,000 −100% | 4 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point between April 9 and December 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 100%.