Polymarket · CryptoClosed
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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 100% | +50 pts | +50 pts | 97¢ · 100¢ (3¢) | — | in 69d |
No trades of $1,000 or more lately.
This market asks whether Vitalik’s anonymous Ethereum writing, announced on June 22, is found and confirmed to be correctly identified by end of year. Vitalik’s announcement post: https://x.com/VitalikButerin/status/2069080988097876084 (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Vitalik+Tweet.png) This market will resolve to “Yes” if Vitalik Buterin explicitly confirms, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms, that a specific, published document has been correctly identified as one he authored anonymously, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Qualifying confirmations include: - Vitalik directly acknowledges the document has been discovered and correctly attributed to him (e.g., via X post, blog, or interview). - Credible reporting that cites Vitalik confirming the attribution. - Any public statement from Vitalik indicating the challenge has been solved with the correct document identified. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Vitalik Buterin (https://x.com/VitalikButerin), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 100%.