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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ↑ 63,000 | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| ↑ 70,000 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| ↑ 69,000 | 0% | −3 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| ↑ 68,000 | 0% | −3 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| ↑ 67,000 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| ↑ 66,000 | 0% | −3 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| ↑ 65,000 | 0% | −3 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| ↑ 64,000 | 0% | −11 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| ↓ 62,000 | 0% | −22 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| ↓ 61,000 | 0% | −4 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| ↓ 60,000 | 0% | −3 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| ↓ 59,000 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| ↓ 58,000 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| ↓ 57,000 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| ↓ 56,000 | 0% | −3 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| ↓ 55,000 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 111d | SkyLove7 | ↓ 62,000 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,343 | +$1 +0.1% | 2 |
| 111d |  Tttyh | ↓ 62,000 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,997 | +$3 +0.1% | 2 |
| 111d |  Leisurely | ↑ 64,000 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,412 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 111d | Mizukaze | ↑ 64,000 | BuyNo>99¢ | $12,549 | +$18 +0.1% | 2 |
| 111d |  GoodLuck68886 | ↑ 64,000 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,773 | +$41 +0.7% | 2 |
| 111d | Leisurely | ↑ 64,000 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,382 | +$32 +0.9% | 2 |
| 111d | 0x417932ca3da34bf3df20009512a85b2eee9429c3 | ↑ 68,000 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,434 | +$2 +0.1% | 2 |
| 112d | 0x2d6a…8b5a | ↓ 62,000 | BuyNo64¢ → 100¢ | $1,000 | +$563 +56% | 4 |
| 112d | 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | ↑ 63,000 | BuyNo67¢ → 0¢ | $1,120 | −$1,120 −100% | 4 |
| 112d | anon.1980.123 | ↑ 64,000 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,024 | +$21 +2.1% | 2 |
| 112d | 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | ↓ 61,000 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $2,201 | +$87 +3.9% | 2 |
| 112d | 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | ↑ 64,000 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $2,576 | +$113 +4.4% | 2 |
What price will Bitcoin hit on July 4?
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for ↑ 63,000 means the market gives it about 100%.