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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ↓ 84,000 | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| ↓ 83,000 | 0% | −3 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| ↓ 85,000 | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| ↑ 87,000 | 0% | −25 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| ↑ 88,000 | 0% | −7 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| ↑ 89,000 | 0% | −2 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| ↓ 82,000 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| ↓ 81,000 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| ↑ 90,000 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| ↑ 91,000 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| ↑ 86,000 | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| ↓ 80,000 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| ↓ 78,000 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| ↑ 93,000 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| ↓ 79,000 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| ↑ 92,000 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17d |  Facaie | ↓ 83,000 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,485 | +$15 +1.0% | 2 |
| 17d | Corny-Mincemeat2 fills | ↓ 84,000 | SellYes>99¢ | $12,575 | −$13 −0.1% | — |
| 17d | duneprod1 | ↓ 84,000 | BuyYes>99¢ | $7,286 | +$18 +0.2% | 2 |
| 17d |  CoinTrick | ↓ 84,000 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,993 | +$4 +0.1% | 2 |
| 17d | Lkens | ↓ 84,000 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,023 | +$2 +0.1% | 2 |
| 17d |  walnascar | ↓ 83,000 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,495 | +$5 +0.2% | 2 |
| 17d | Navigator77 | ↑ 88,000 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,350 | +$5 +0.2% | 2 |
| 17d | Navigator77 | ↑ 89,000 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,220 | +$4 +0.3% | 2 |
| 18d | 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | ↓ 85,000 | BuyNo81¢ → 0¢ | $1,620 | −$1,620 −100% | 3 |
| 18d |  justdance | ↓ 84,000 | BuyNo94¢ → 0¢ | $4,260 | −$4,260 −100% | 2 |
justdance4,306 sharesWhat price will Bitcoin hit on October 6?
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for ↓ 84,000 means the market gives it about 100%.