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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ↑ 92,000 | 0% | 0 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| ↑ 88,000 | 0% | −2 pts | −21 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| ↓ 78,000 | 0% | −1 pts | −15 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| ↓ 82,000 | 0% | −2 pts | −72 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| ↓ 80,000 | 0% | −1 pts | −30 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| ↑ 90,000 | 0% | −1 pts | −8 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| ↑ 86,000 | 100% | +53 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| ↓ 76,000 | 0% | 0 pts | −8 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| ↑ 94,000 | 0% | 0 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| ↑ 96,000 | 0% | 0 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| ↓ 74,000 | 0% | — | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| ↓ 72,000 | 0% | — | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| ↑ 98,000 | 0% | — | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| ↑ 86,000 | 100% | +85 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| ↓ 70,000 | 0% | — | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| ↓ 84,000 | 100% | +50 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| ↑ 84,000 | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| ↓ 84,000 | 0% | −33 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| ↓ 84,000 | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| ↑ 84,000 | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19d | lee886 | ↑ 88,000 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,000 | +$20 +0.4% | 2 |
| 19d | Favorable-Pepper-Brushing2 fills | ↑ 88,000 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,276 | +$46 +1.4% | 2 |
| 19d | ↓ 80,000 | BuyNo>99¢ | $8,736 | +$9 +0.1% | 2 | |
| 19d | mingxyz | ↓ 78,000 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,424 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 19d | Cawi | ↓ 78,000 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,268 | +$1 +0.1% | 2 |
| 19d | Yaia | ↓ 78,000 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,280 | +$1 +0.1% | 2 |
| 19d | Kaies | ↓ 78,000 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,271 | +$1 +0.1% | 2 |
| 19d | ↓ 78,000 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,497 | +$3 +0.1% | 2 | |
| 19d | 0xf705…3ca75 fills | ↓ 82,000 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $33,108 | +$372 +1.1% | 2 |
| 19d | Egozic86 | ↓ 78,000 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,000 | +$3 +0.1% | 2 |
| 20d | Navigator77 | ↓ 82,000 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,565 | +$20 +0.6% | 2 |
| 20d | Navigator77 | ↑ 88,000 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,000 | +$17 +0.4% | 2 |
| 20d | DiversifiedBS | ↑ 86,000 | BuyNo64¢ → 0¢ | $1,503 | −$1,503 −100% | 4 |
| 20d | nearping | ↓ 78,000 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,997 | +$3 +0.1% | 2 |
| 20d | Favorable-Pepper-Brushing2 fills | ↓ 82,000 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,585 | +$47 +1.3% | 2 |
| 20d | ↑ 92,000 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,999 | +$6 +0.2% | 2 | |
| 20d | ↓ 80,000 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,964 | +$13 +0.4% | 2 | |
| 20d | ↓ 78,000 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,991 | +$9 +0.3% | 2 | |
| 20d | ↑ 96,000 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,016 | −$4 −0.1% | — | |
| 20d | ↑ 96,000 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,344 | +$4 +0.1% | 2 | |
| 20d | Worse-Haunt | ↓ 76,000 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,129 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 20d | ↓ 80,000 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,794 | +$24 +1.3% | 2 | |
| 21d | NachiketD | ↑ 90,000 | BuyNo>99¢ | $10,000 | +$43 +0.4% | 2 |
| 21d | Rin2x | ↑ 94,000 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,050 | +$2 +0.2% | 2 |
| 21d | ↓ 78,000 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,730 | −$30 −0.8% | — | |
| 21d | haonanaaaa | ↑ 94,000 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,000 | +$2 +0.2% | 2 |
| 21d | 0xe617…f251 | ↑ 88,000 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$30 +1.5% | 2 |
| 21d | lihai | ↑ 92,000 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,000 | +$4 +0.4% | 2 |
| 21d | Untimely-Kiwi4 fills | ↓ 78,000 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $7,998 | +$73 +0.9% | 2 |
| 21d | AndreyGG | ↑ 90,000 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,933 | +$15 +0.8% | 2 |
| 21d | Worse-Haunt2 fills | ↓ 78,000 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $11,151 | +$129 +1.2% | 2 |
| 21d | KaterKarlo | ↑ 94,000 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,100 | +$4 +0.2% | 2 |
| 21d | Putrid-Hippopotamus | ↑ 92,000 | BuyNo100¢ | $1,030 | +$5 +0.5% | 2 |
| 21d | lan008 | ↓ 78,000 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,989 | +$44 +1.1% | 2 |
| 21d | ↓ 78,000 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,651 | +$29 +1.1% | 2 | |
| 21d | ↓ 82,000 | SellNo90¢ → 100¢ | $2,201 | −$242 −11% | — | |
| 21d | ↓ 78,000 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,795 | +$20 +1.1% | 2 | |
| 21d | Krejza683 fills | ↑ 90,000 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $6,895 | +$105 +1.5% | 2 |
| 21d | 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b04523 fills | ↑ 88,000 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $14,962 | +$898 +6.0% | 2 |
| 21d | shaillakhani | ↓ 82,000 | BuyYes14¢ → 0¢ | $1,200 | −$1,200 −100% | 5 |
| 21d | Timpossible | ↓ 84,000 | SellYes>99¢ | $6,037 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 21d | johnsalchichon | ↓ 84,000 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,306 | +$14 +1.0% | 2 |
| 22d | ↓ 76,000 | BuyNo100¢ | $1,437 | +$7 +0.5% | 2 | |
| 22d | ↑ 96,000 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,996 | +$4 +0.2% | 2 | |
| 22d | NachiketD | ↓ 80,000 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,000 | +$62 +1.2% | 2 |
| 22d | NachiketD3 fills | ↑ 92,000 | BuyNo>99¢ | $10,000 | +$45 +0.4% | 2 |
| 22d | ↓ 82,000 | SellNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,306 | −$95 −7.3% | — | |
| 22d | ↑ 88,000 | SellNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,284 | −$112 −8.7% | — | |
| 22d | yaokan2 fills | ↓ 80,000 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $4,381 | +$101 +2.3% | 2 |
| 22d | yaokan6 fills | ↑ 92,000 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $11,354 | +$637 +5.6% | 2 |
| 22d | TinaGoat | ↓ 82,000 | SellNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,310 | −$92 −7.1% | — |
| 22d | TinaGoat | ↑ 88,000 | SellNo87¢ → 100¢ | $2,924 | −$429 −15% | — |
| 22d | TinaGoat | ↑ 90,000 | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $3,091 | −$107 −3.5% | — |
| 22d | TinaGoat | ↑ 92,000 | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $4,761 | −$83 −1.7% | — |
| 22d | ↓ 82,000 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,884 | +$83 +4.4% | 2 | |
| 22d | chet0102 fills | ↓ 80,000 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,037 | +$43 +1.4% | 2 |
| 22d | ↑ 88,000 | BuyNo47¢ → 100¢ | $4,690 | +$5,240 +112% | 4 | |
| 22d | TinaGoat | ↓ 82,000 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,151 | +$52 +4.5% | 2 |
| 22d | ↓ 82,000 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $5,742 | +$273 +4.7% | 2 | |
| 22d | Worse-Haunt | ↓ 74,000 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,985 | −$4 −0.2% | — |
What price will Bitcoin hit September 28-October 4?
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for ↑ 92,000 means the market gives it about 0%.