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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ↓ $3,900 | 39% | +10 pts | +30 pts | 35¢ · 43¢ (8¢) | $2.21K | in 8d |
| ↑ $4,100 | 33% | −21 pts | — | 28¢ · 38¢ (10¢) | $435 | in 8d |
| ↑ $4,200 | 11% | −7 pts | −70 pts | 11¢ · 12¢ (1¢) | $649 | in 8d |
| ↓ $3,800 | 9% | +2 pts | +3 pts | 9¢ · 9¢ (<1¢) | $3.25K | in 8d |
| ↑ $4,300 | 5% | — | −39 pts | 4¢ · 6¢ (2¢) | $109 | in 8d |
| ↓ $3,700 | 4% | +1 pts | +2 pts | 3¢ · 5¢ (2¢) | $503 | in 8d |
| ↓ $3,600 | 1% | — | 0 pts | 1¢ · 2¢ (1¢) | $729 | in 8d |
| ↑ $4,400 | 1% | −1 pts | −13 pts | <1¢ · 2¢ (1¢) | $549 | in 8d |
| ↓ $3,500 | 1% | 0 pts | 0 pts | <1¢ · 2¢ (2¢) | — | in 8d |
| ↑ $4,600 | 1% | 0 pts | −3 pts | 1¢ · 1¢ (<1¢) | $73.7 | in 8d |
| ↑ $4,500 | 1% | 0 pts | −7 pts | 1¢ · 1¢ (<1¢) | $70.3 | in 8d |
| ↑ $4,800 | <1% | 0 pts | 0 pts | <1¢ · 1¢ (<1¢) | $391 | in 8d |
| ↑ $4,700 | <1% | 0 pts | −1 pts | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | $80.1 | in 8d |
| ↑ $4,900 | <1% | — | −1 pts | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | $6.01 | in 8d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | Offensive-Complexity-EncounterNew account | ↑ $4,700 | SellNo99¢ → >99¢ | $5,277 | −$32 −0.6% | — |
| 2d | C03B | ↑ $4,900 | BuyNo99¢ → >99¢ | $3,832 | +$14 +0.4% | 4 |
| 2d | beatyesterday | ↓ $3,800 | BuyNo98¢ → 91¢ | $1,176 | −$84 −7.1% | 5 |
| 4d | grasstoucher69 | ↓ $3,800 | SellNo95¢ → 91¢ | $2,478 | +$107 +4.3% | — |
| 9d | oliverbigfly | ↑ $4,900 | SellNo98¢ → >99¢ | $1,024 | −$16 −1.6% | — |
| 16d | lagex333 | ↓ $3,800 | SellNo84¢ → 91¢ | $1,749 | −$138 −7.9% | — |
| 21d |  CoinTrick | Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,200 in October? | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,451 | +$3 +0.1% | 4 |
| 22d | Offensive-Complexity-EncounterNew account | ↑ $4,700 | BuyNo94¢ → >99¢ | $5,000 | +$309 +6.2% | 8 |
| 29d | bitcoinmafia | ↓ $3,600 | BuyYes85¢ → 1¢ | $1,275 | −$1,257 −99% | 14 |
k7X9mP2qW41,592 shares
withoutmoonset1,550 shares
EgoVolae345 shares
Tanjirooo1,286 shares
SpicyBrwny532 shares
FFIE.494 sharesWhat will Gold (XAUUSD) hit in October 2026?
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 39¢ for ↓ $3,900 means the market gives it about 39%.